PuntersAdvice Betting Log

PuntersAdvice Betting Log


This betting log will be very selective and usually only one bet will be posted each week.
This will be a medium term project that will last for a minimum of 2 years.

The opening balance will be 1,000.
Stake will be 5% or 10% of the current balance.


Markets:
win-draw-win
over 2.5 goals
both teams to score
team to win & over 2.5 goals


Prices will be taken from 6 bookmakers:
Bet365
Ladbrokes
Stan James
William Hill
BetVictor
Paddy Power


The leagues I will focus on are:
English Premier League
Spanish Primera Division
German Bundesliga
Italian Serie A
French Ligue 1
Dutch Eredivisie
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Irish Premier League
Norwegian Eliteserien
Swedish Allsvenskan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
Japanese J-League
USA Major League Soccer
Champions League
Europa League



On to the opening bet of the log...



English Premier League: Southampton v Liverpool


-Southampton average 2.59 goals per league game (12/27 Over 2.5 Goals).
-Liverpool average 3.89 goals per league game (20/27 Over 2.5 Goals).
-Daniel Sturridge has scored in eight consecutive Premier League appearances.
-Only four teams have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in the top flight this season (7), three of those teams are in the bottom four.
-Southampton have scored in 23 of their 27 league matches this season.
-There have been a total of 49 goals scored in each teams last 6 league matches.
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in fifteen of Liverpool’s last seventeen games in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last ten away matches in the Premier League.
-Defensive midfielder Wanyama is absent for Southampton.


Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Stake: 50
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Odds: 1.75

Decent start mate

Thanks Smakerz

Southampton 0-3 Liverpool

Balance: 1,037

whens the next one coming up?

I'd go for chesterfield tonight over 2.5 match goals

Odds 17/20

English Premier League: Everton v Cardiff City


-Everton have scored over 1.5 goals in 8 home games this season.
-Cardiff have conceded over 1.5 goals in 9 away games this season.
-Everton have won 6 from their last 7 home league games.
-Everton are undefeated in 21 of their last 22 home matches in the Premier League.
-Cardiff have won just one away game all season, lost their last 7, and they have failed to score in eight of their last 10 away matches.
-Cardiff have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League.
-Center-back Ben Turner could be doubtful for Cardiff.


Bet: Everton To Score Over 1.5 Goals
Stake: 52
Bookmaker: StanJames
Odds: 1.57

Sorry folks, head over heart on this one.

English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury


-Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins.
-Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets.
-Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games.
-Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh).


Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap
Stake: 104
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 1.475

English Premier League: Man Utd v Liverpool


-Liverpool have scored at least 3 goals in their last 4 matches in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have won their last 4 matches in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have been superb in attack, however, and may take a lead into the break having scored 27 more goals in the first half of league matches this season than their hosts.
-Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 league matches, scoring 20 goals and have lost just 4 away league games this season.
-Man Utd have lost or drawn 50% of their league matches.
-Man Utd have to consider their match against Olympiakos who have just won their domestic league and have a 2 goal advantage in the Champions League and more than likely Man Utd will have to win the CL to be in the competition next season.
-Fellani is starting and is far too slow against Liverpools front 6.


Liverpool: Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Flanagan, Gerrard, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Suarez, Sturridge

Man Utd: De Gea, Rafael, Jones, Vidic, Evra, Mata, Fellaini, Carrick, Januzaj, Rooney, van Persie


Bet: Liverpool To Win Or Draw (Double Chance)
Stake: 96
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 1.55

English Premier League: Tottenham v Arsenal


-We will round off this weeks bets with the last game in the Premier League between two local teams teams who both have a host of injuries however Tottenham don't have many top quality replacements unlike Arsenal.
-Arsenal missing: Diaby, Walcott, Ozil, Ramsey.
-Tottenham missing: Lamela, Chiriches, Capoue, Dawson, Dembele.
-Tottenham are on a bad run having lost on Thursday to Benfica and are 6 points behind Arsenal in the race for a champions league place having played 1 game more.
-Arsenal have won both meetings this season.
-Tottenham have conceded 5 goals in each of their home games against Man City and Liverpool and will again be playing with a slightly unusual formation against one of the most technically proficient teams in the league and should be pinned in their own half for much of the game with a lineup that looks to be trying to play counter attacking football which they simply don't have the pace for against this Arsenal side.


Tottenham: Lloris; Naughton, Kaboul, Vertonghen, Rose; Sandro; Townsend, Bentaleb, Eriksen, Chadli; Adebayor.

Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Arteta, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud.



Bet: Arsenal To Win Or Draw (Double Chance)
Stake: 54
Bookmaker: Boylesports
Odds: 1.4

Everton 2-1 Cardiff City
Wolves 0-0 Shrewsbury
Man Utd 0-3 Liverpool
Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal

Balance: 1,037

Everton 2-1 Cardiff City
Wolves 0-0 Shrewsbury
Man Utd 0-3 Liverpool
Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal

Balance: 1,037

Is that after today's bets ?

The last balance figure posted will always be the correct balance at time of posting.

The last balance figure posted will always be the correct balance at time of posting.

U start on £1000?

He lost on the Wolves game, so makes sense.

The last balance figure posted will always be the correct balance at time of posting.

U start on £1000?

Yes.

I will bet 5% or 10% of the current balance on each bet so the stake for the next bet will be either 52 or 104 for example (current balance 1,037).

I will decide how how to stake by taking into consideration what percentage of the time I expect the bet to win in relation to the odds so the bigger the value I predict the more I stake.

Most of the bets will be 5% which is actually quite an aggressive staking plan and the 10% stakes will be reserved for those bets where I feel there is significant value in the odds (and a high strike rate).

To put this into more context, most professional gamblers will have a maximum bet of 2% and most of their bets will be for less. It would not be unusual to see a horse racing punter staking 0.25% on a bet regularly.

This is where most gamblers fail, combined with betting accumulators instead of singles.

Champions League: Barcelona v Atletico Madrid


-Have played eachother 4 times since 2013, all under 3.5 goals.
-Last two meetings finished 0-0.
-Atletico have not won at Camp Nou since 2006 and will come to this match to defend and go to the second leg at home with a 0-0 or 1-1 result.
-Barcelona have won 2 of their previous 6 Champions League matches against Spanish opposition.
-Atletico are undefeated in the Champions League.
-Barcelona struggled to break down a tight defensive unit in Espanyol at the weekend, winning 1-0 and will face a similar strategy here.
-Atletico's top scorer Diego Costa picked up a knee injury on Monday and is doubtful for this match.


Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Stake: 52
Bookmaker: StanJames
Odds: 1.44

Barcelona 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Balance: 1,060

nice easy win for you there.

Definitely, about once a month I look at the odds for very high profile game and can't understand how the market has arrived at the prices.

That was about a 1.25 shot in my opinion, however it is very rare that I will have the opinion I am getting odds 76% bigger than what I consider the fair odds to be.

Bookmakers generally price up football with a more mathematical approach than most sports and to factor into an algorithm a teams motivations and expected strategy is difficult which opens up the opportunity for these sort of bets for us.

Then again the bookies have to get every market right, we just have to spot the one that is wrong

French Ligue 1: Guingamp v Montpellier



-Guingamp and Montpellier occupy 18th and 15th place in the total goals per league match table with 1.91 and 2.29 goals respectively.

-They both have an average of 1.5 total goals per match in their last 6 league games.

-They have a combined 74% of league matches going under 2.5 goals.

-Guingamp have the 4th worst offense and the 5th best defense in the league.

-Saihi (Montpellier) has returned but has said himself he is another 2 or 3 games away from match fitness.

-Defender Mathieu Deplagne is available for Montpellier, but will serve a one-match ban for accumulation of yellow cards against Marseille.

-Guingamp will soon have captain Lionel Mathis available again following an Achilles injury, but the Montpellier match comes too soon.



Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Stake: 53
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
Odds: 1.55

[quote="PuntersAdvice"]French Ligue 1: Guingamp v Montpellier



-Guingamp and Montpellier occupy 18th and 15th place in the total goals per league match table with 1.91 and 2.29 goals respectively.

-They both have an average of 1.5 total goals per match in their last 6 league games.

-They have a combined 74% of league matches going under 2.5 goals.

-Guingamp have the 4th worst offense and the 5th best defense in the league.

-Saihi (Montpellier) has returned but has said himself he is another 2 or 3 games away from match fitness.

-Defender Mathieu Deplagne is available for Montpellier, but will serve a one-match ban for accumulation of yellow cards against Marseille.

-Guingamp will soon have captain Lionel Mathis available again following an Achilles injury, but the Montpellier match comes too soon.



Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Stake: 53
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
Odds: 1.55[/quote

Unlucky mate hate French leagues awful

Guingamp 1-2 Montpellier

Balance: 1,007

German Bundesliga: Hoffenheim v Augsburg


-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Hoffenheim's last 17 home games in the Bundesliga.
-Hoffenheim have scored at least 2 goals in their last 8 home matches in the Bundesliga.
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Augsburg's last 6 away games in the Bundesliga.
-Hoffenheim are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Augsburg in all competitions.
-Augsburg still have a slight chance to qualify for Europe themselves after a win against Bayern last weekend. Several important players could return to the starting line-up.
-The last meeting had 24 shots with 16 on target.


Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Stake: 50
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
Odds: 1.55

Hoffenheim 2-0 Augsburg

Balance: 957

Spanish Copa Del Rey: Barcelona v Real Madrid


-Both teams have scored in the last 15 meetings.
-Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 14 matches against Real Madrid in all competitions.
-Real Madrid have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches against Barcelona in all competitions.
-This is Barcelona's only chance of a trophy this season and will play very offensively.
-Barcelona have defensive problems with both Puyol and Pique doubtful and Valdes is definitely out while Madrid have their own defensive problems with both Marcelo and Khedira doubtful.
-While Ronaldo is out and obviously a massive player for Madrid, Isco has been producing the goals in his absence.
-In previous seasons this would have been an automatic 10% bet however with other factors such as Madrid's Champions League aspirations and their focus on La Liga we will be reducing the stakes on this match.


Bet: Both Teams To Score
Stake: 49
Bookmaker: Paddy Power
Odds: 1.5

In the short while since the bet was posted Paddy Power have dropped the odds from 1.5 to 1.4 and are now one of the shortest priced among the major bookmakers. There must be some large bettors on this forum or a lot of small bets placed in a short period of time.

Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid

Balance: 981

-------------------------

English Premier League: Outright Winner Betting Market


-Liverpools have 4 games remaining, two of which are against poor mid-table teams who have nothing to play for in Crystal Palace and Newcastle.
-Liverpools other game is against Norwich who are fighting relegation and are lucky Fulham and Sunderland collapsed this year or they would certainly be relegated.
-Liverpools remaining fixture is against Chelsea and crucially for this bet, the match will be played at Anfield where Liverpool have a record of 15-1-1 and are playing a Chelsea team that have won less than 50% of their away games and their most important creative player, Hazard, has a calf/shin injury and is without an expected return date and could miss this match.
-Man City have 5 games remaining which includes a very tough trip to Everton who have a record at home of 12-3-2 while Chelsea are still in the Champions League and have a very tough draw against Atletico Madrid which will increase their chances of dropping points in the final stages of the Premier League.
-Assuming Liverpool draw with Chelsea and win their remaining fixtures they will win the league after Man City were held to a draw with Sunderland tonight.


Bet: Liverpool To Win The Premier League 13/14
Stake: 98
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Odds: 1.57

English Premier League: Chelsea v Sunderland


-Chelsea are undefeated in their last 26 home matches in the Premier League.
-Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 home matches in the Premier League.
-Chelsea have won 8 of their last 9 home matches against Sunderland in all competitions.
-Sunderland have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 5 away matches in the Premier League.
-Sunderland have failed to win their last 9 matches in the Premier League.
-Expect plenty of passion from the visitors but Mourinho won't let his side take any games for granted and knowing that 4 wins will secure the title is incentive enough to ensure they don't slip up before the crucial match against Liverpool.
-Eden Hazard is injured and has been Chelsea's most creative player this season.
-Chelsea have a Champions League game against Atletico Madrid and a Premier League game against Liverpool which could decide the title in the following week and Mourinho has shown a tendency to revert to a very defensive formation when he gets the lead and save his players energy.


Bet: Chelsea To Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Stake: 49
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 2.00

Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland

Balance: 932


-----------------------


Champions League: Atletico Madrid v Chelsea


-Chelsea's most creative player, Eden Hazard, is unavailable for this fixture.
-Courtois will play for Atletico Madrid.
-Atletico Madrid have 5 clean sheets in their last 8 Champions League matches including their last match against Barcelona.
-5 of Atletico's last 6 Champions League matches have gone under 2.5 goals.
-Chelsea have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 8 Champions League matches and Mourinho will almost certainly play a very defensive style in this first leg.
-Atletico generally play a very defensive style against the top European teams and they will not want to concede an away goal.


Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Stake: 47
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Odds: 1.55