WHAT POINTS TALLY MIGHT CITY NEED FOR PROMOTION NEXT SEASON?

The points tally Cardiff City need next season to gain promotion into the Premier League
By Ian Mitchelmore


Neil Warnock will be hoping his summer transfer business will significantly boost his side's promotion bid next term


The 2017-18 Championship campaign is edging ever closer as Cardiff City continue to prepare for their league opener against Burton at the Pirelli Stadium on August 5.

Neil Warnock has had a manic summer so far to say the least, adding no fewer than seven players to his squad while handing five players new deals and offloading three others.

The Cardiff faithful have already seen most of their new signings in action during the club's pre-season tour of Cornwall and Devon while the likes of Bruno Manga and captain Sean Morrison will remain at the club as Warnock looks to guide the Bluebirds into the promised land of the Premier League.

But how many points do the Bluebirds need next season to achieve promotion?

We trawled through the history books to find out...


The 2016-17 season

The 2016-17 Championship campaign delivered one of the closest title battles of recent years, with Newcastle and Brighton regularly trading places at the summit of the division during the course of the season.

It was ultimately a late collapse from the Seagulls that allowed Newcastle to clinch top spot on the final day of the campaign and ensure they returned to the Premier League at the first time of asking.

Rafa Benitez's side claimed top spot with 94 points, just one more than Brighton's tally of 93, the joint-highest tally for the side ending the season in runner-up spot during the Championship era, which started in the 2004-05 campaign.

As for the play-offs, Huddersfield tasted penalty shootout glory against Reading at Wembley having ended the season with 81 points, a total that saw them come in fifth place.

Fulham took the sixth and final play-off spot, with their tally of 80 points being the highest ever for a side finishing in sixth place in England's second tier during the Championship era.

So those stats prove Cardiff's chances of promotion last term - despite their incredible resurgence under Warnock - were minuscule to say the least, but what about other seasons? Let's take a look.


Title averages

Reading won an astonishing 31 of their 46 league matches, losing just two and drawing the other 13 as they romped to the 2005-06 title with a record 106 points.

And on the flip side, West Brom gained promotion into England's top tier in 2008 with just 81 points, a total that would have seen them just about scrape into the top six last term.

Over the course of the 13 seasons in the Championship era, the title winners have ended the season with an average of 93 points.

The Bluebirds collected 87 points when they were promoted four years ago, finishing an impressive eight points clear of second placed Hull who also went up.


Runner-up averages

Cardiff's points tally from their title-winning campaign was six fewer than the average for sides who have tasted glory in the second division during the Championship era.

And perhaps surprisingly, 87 points - the total the Bluebirds amassed in the 2012-13 season - is the average tally that sides who finish in second have achieved in the last 13 campaigns.

As mentioned, Brighton's total of 93 last season was the joint-highest - along with Burnley in 2013-14 - for sides taking runner-up spot in the Championship while Hull (2012-13) and Stoke (2007-08) share the record for achieving automatic promotion after finishing second with 79 points.


Play-off averages

It's a whole different story as far as the play-offs are concerned, because, as we know, anyone finishing from third to sixth can go up.

The Bluebirds picked up 75 points as they finished sixth in the 2011-12 season and 76 to take fourth position in the 2009-10 campaign.

The average total for sides who have gone up as play-off winners since the 2004-05 season is 79, with West Ham (2011-12) and Norwich (2014-15) both claiming a joint-highest record of 86 points when they gained promotion through the play-offs.

And Cardiff fans will know only too well that Blackpool's total of 70 points - the lowest for a side going up through the play-offs in the Championship era - proved enough for Ian Holloway's men in the 2009-10 season.

But a side has managed to finish in sixth spot with a points total even lower than what the Tangerines collected in that campaign.

Leicester pipped Bolton to the final play-off spot during Cardiff's title-winning season four years ago on goal difference, ending the campaign with 68 points.

It all means that the average number of points required to finish in sixth place over the last seasons is 74.


So where do Neil Warnock's Cardiff fit into all of this? Let's look at the numbers.

Warnock's record in the Welsh capital:

The Bluebirds were languishing in the Championship's relegation zone with just eight points from their opening 11 league games when Warnock replaced Paul Trollope.

And after getting the Bluebirds clear of the drop zone, there was briefly talk of a top six spot being on the cards as the Yorkshireman worked his magic in the Welsh capital.

A shocking start ultimately meant a play-off spot was beyond the realms of possibility, but Cardiff's record under their current boss in the 2016-17 campaign proved a promotion charge is very realistic next season.

The Bluebirds would have achieved a ninth place finish had the previous season started when Warnock took to the south Wales hotseat in October, and even more encouragingly they would only have been five points adrift of a top six place.

They collected an average of 1.54 points-per-game under Warnock, more than double what they managed in the 11 league outings under Trollope.

And if you stretch Warnock's achievements over the course of the whole 2016-17 season, the stats make for even better reading.

The Bluebirds averaged just 0.73 points-per-game under Trollope, but if you take away his record and replace it with that of Warnock based on what he managed from October to May, the Bluebirds would have ended last term with 71 points rather than 62.

So following the club's swift transfer business in the summer and the fact that Warnock has already had nine months in the Welsh capital ahead of his first full campaign with the Bluebirds, the Yorkshireman will no doubt feel Cardiff are in a strong position to - at the very least - challenge for promotion in the 2017-18 season.

Sven, more than the other teams?

I always think you need to achieve 6 points every 3 games for automatic promotion (92 points) and 5 points every 3 games you get in the playoffs (76)

Good read that and very interesting, I think we will make the playoffs, but beyond that I do not know, if we do make the playoffs, I don't know if my heart will stand up to it

Good read that and very interesting, I think we will make the playoffs, but beyond that I do not know, if we do make the playoffs, I don't know if my heart will stand up to it

I blame my ever receding hair line on our long list of failed play off attempts.

Sven, more than the other teams?

I think you've hit on a 'plan' there, fella!

Sven, more than the other teams?

I think you've hit on a 'plan' there, fella!

really is as simple or as complicated as that..
what went on behind us the year we went up made no sense..pts per game and ratios went right out of the window.
had Hull won 3 out of their last 4.{ 2wins and 2 draws would be enough if one of the wins had come against ourselves } .THEY would have been champions.....they failed to win any.
3rd placed Watford managed only 3 wins in last 10 games
6th placed Leicester 3 wins in the last 17 matches including EIGHT defeats.
and eventually promoted Palace went into the final day with no wins in 9,securing a play off place by beating bottom club peterborough.