' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:31 pm
These are all the results Wales need to happen over the next few days to qualify for the World Cup -
Thursday 5th October 2017
Wales realistically need to defeat Georgia and Republic of Ireland to stand a strong chance of reaching next year's World Cup in Russia.
A six-point haul from their final two games would guarantee that Chris Coleman's men finish in the top two of Group D, probably earning them a play-off spot at the very least.
Wales could still reach the play-offs with just four - or in an extremely unlikely scenario, just three - points from their remaining matches, but would need to rely on other results elsewhere to go their way.
So what exactly needs to happen over the next week for Wales to have a chance of booking their place at the World Cup? Which other teams should Welsh supporters be cheering on?
Here we take a closer look...
Where do Wales currently stand in Group D and the 'mini-league'?
Wales remain at the bottom of the nine teams currently second in their groups which means — as it stands — they would miss out on a play-off spot. Only the top eight sides can progress.
They currently have 14 points, but as it stands, six of those are taken away because Wales defeated bottom side Moldova home and away. Results against sides who finish at the bottom of each group don't count towards the mini-league, so their mini-league total is just eight.
That total could soar to 14 if they beat Georgia and Ireland, with only the former standing a remote chance of ending up at the bottom of the pile.
Wales are four points behind group leaders Serbia, who travel to Austria on Friday before hosting Georgia in Belgrade three days later, meaning just one win will guarantee the Serbs finish at the summit of Group D. Two draws is even likely to be enough.
A dream scenario would be for Wales to win both games and for Serbia to claim one or no points from their remaining games; an unlikely set of results that would see Coleman's men top the group and automatically qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1958.
It's far more likely that Wales will finish second, and given that Ireland are very likely to beat Moldova in Dublin on Friday, it could well set up a winner-takes-all showdown between the sides in Cardiff on Monday night.
The bottom line is, Wales need at least three points from their last two games to mathematically stand any chance of reaching the play-offs, but realistically, four will be the absolute minimum needed.
What Wales need to do
If Wales win both of their games, only one of the following scenarios needs to happen for them to get at least a play-off place:
Group A: Netherlands beat Sweden.
Group E: Montenegro beat Denmark and Poland beat Montenegro.
Group F: Slovakia don't beat Scotland and England beat Slovenia.
Group H: Bosnia don't beat Belgium.
Group I: Turkey beat Iceland, Turkey don't beat Finland and Ukraine don't beat Croatia.
If Wales win one and draw one of their final two games, this needs to happen for them to get a play-off place:
Group H: Belgium beat Bosnia and Cyprus beat Greece.
How other teams can help Wales
Group A
This is one of the tightest groups in European qualifying, with four sides still battling it out for a top two spot.
Sweden — a point behind France — are currently second and have 10 mini-league points, but given that either Belarus or Luxembourg could finish bottom, it remains to be seen which points will be wiped out.
France, Sweden, Netherlands and Bulgaria all play one of the current bottom two in their final two games, so it's almost impossible to predict who will finish where with two rounds left to play.
France manager Didier Deschamps
If both France and Sweden won their final two outings, the positions in the group would remain the same, but Wales could potentially pip the latter if Luxembourg — who Sweden play next — finish at the bottom of the table.
It would mean Sweden could only reach 13 mini-league points, which would be one less than Wales' total if Coleman's men claim maximum points from their remaining games.
What suits Wales? For the top two to stay as it is and Luxembourg to finish bottom.
Group B
Unfortunately, there's no way this pool can help Wales as Switzerland and Portugal have both guaranteed themselves a top two place and both already have higher mini-league tallies than Wales can achieve.
Group C
Bizarrely, Northern Ireland could come to Wales' rescue, despite their magnificent form so far.
They've guaranteed themselves runner-up spot although they trail flawless Germany — who have won all eight of their matches — by five points.
The Green and White Army host the 2014 World Cup winners in Belfast on Thursday night before travelling to Norway three days later.
And if they were to lose both of those matches, they would finish with 13 mini-league points, again one fewer than Wales if they win both of their two games.
What suits Wales? Germany and Norway both to beat Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland manager Michael O'Neill
Group E
Kazakhstan are almost certain to finish at the bottom of this group, and it appears that there'll be a two-way battle between Montenegro and Denmark for runners-up spot, with Poland expected to top the table.
Montenegro and Denmark actually play each other next, with the former taking on Poland in their final game. Meanwhile, Denmark end with a home game against fourth-placed Romania.
Denmark and Montenegro have both claimed two wins against Kazakhstan, meaning they each have 10 mini-league points.
What suits Wales? Montenegro and Denmark to draw against each other, and then neither of those two sides to win their final match OR both sides to win one and lose one of their matches, leaving them on a maximum of 13 mini-league, a tally Wales could eclipse.
Group F
With a five-point lead and games against Slovenia and Lithuania to come, Gareth Southgate will feel fully confident that he can lead England to the World Cup.
But a three-way battle between Scotland, Slovenia and Slovakia has emerged for the runners-up spot.
The latter are currently second with 12 mini-league points, while Slovenia and Scotland both have eight, the same as Wales.
England manager Gareth Southgate
Scotland host Slovakia at Hampden Park on Thursday night, and victory for the visitors could be a nightmare for Wales as it would see Slovakia move on to 15 mini-league points. Given that they host whipping boys Malta in Trnava in their last game, they would almost certainly go on to finish second with a better total than Wales can achieve.
It means either a Scotland win or a draw would be the best outcome as far as Wales are concerned.
Slovenia play England at Wembley, and Coleman's troops could certainly do with a favour from the Three Lions. If England claim all three points, Slovenia could only reach a maximum of 11 mini-league points.
As far as the remaining scenarios are concerned, it's far too complicated at this stage to predict who'll actually finish second, given that Slovenia play Scotland in their final game. Only one point separates second to fourth.
Group G
Once again, this pool offers no solace to Wales as Spain and Italy have dominated the group and will take the top two spots with bumper points totals.
Group H
This group is arguably one of the clearest as things stand. Belgium have already won the pool while minnows Gibraltar will finish rock bottom.
And it's also a group that offers Wales plenty of hope.
Bosnia, Greece and Cyprus are all vying to claim the all-important runners-up berth, and there is a scenario that could help Wales if they only manage to claim four points from their last two games.
Belgium's head coach Roberto Martinez
Belgium take on Bosnia in Sarajevo on Saturday, and if Roberto Martinez's side can claim all three points, Bosnia would only be able to end with 11 mini-league points — a total Wales will beat with a win and a draw in their last two games.
On the same night, Cyprus host Greece in Nicosia.
Greece have 10 mini-league points, but can only reach 13 as they play bottom side Gibraltar in their final game, meaning whatever the outcome is, those points won't count towards a potential runner-up spot.
So if Cyprus defeat Greece, it would mean Wales would guarantee themselves a top eight spot in the mini-league system if they get a win and a draw in these two qualifiers.
What suits Wales? Belgium to beat Bosnia and Cyprus to beat Greece.
Group I
If you didn't have a headache before, then this group will certainly give you one.
Croatia, Iceland, Turkey and Ukraine are all in the mix to claim top two spots in Group I while Kosovo will finish at the bottom of the pile, so any results against them will be discounted when it comes to sorting out the play-off places.
But given that so many of the top four play each other over the next seven days, it remains to be seen exactly who will be runners-up.
As it stands, Croatia have 10 mini-league points while Iceland, Ukraine and Turkey have 13, 11 and eight respectively.
Thursday 5th October 2017
Wales realistically need to defeat Georgia and Republic of Ireland to stand a strong chance of reaching next year's World Cup in Russia.
A six-point haul from their final two games would guarantee that Chris Coleman's men finish in the top two of Group D, probably earning them a play-off spot at the very least.
Wales could still reach the play-offs with just four - or in an extremely unlikely scenario, just three - points from their remaining matches, but would need to rely on other results elsewhere to go their way.
So what exactly needs to happen over the next week for Wales to have a chance of booking their place at the World Cup? Which other teams should Welsh supporters be cheering on?
Here we take a closer look...
Where do Wales currently stand in Group D and the 'mini-league'?
Wales remain at the bottom of the nine teams currently second in their groups which means — as it stands — they would miss out on a play-off spot. Only the top eight sides can progress.
They currently have 14 points, but as it stands, six of those are taken away because Wales defeated bottom side Moldova home and away. Results against sides who finish at the bottom of each group don't count towards the mini-league, so their mini-league total is just eight.
That total could soar to 14 if they beat Georgia and Ireland, with only the former standing a remote chance of ending up at the bottom of the pile.
Wales are four points behind group leaders Serbia, who travel to Austria on Friday before hosting Georgia in Belgrade three days later, meaning just one win will guarantee the Serbs finish at the summit of Group D. Two draws is even likely to be enough.
A dream scenario would be for Wales to win both games and for Serbia to claim one or no points from their remaining games; an unlikely set of results that would see Coleman's men top the group and automatically qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1958.
It's far more likely that Wales will finish second, and given that Ireland are very likely to beat Moldova in Dublin on Friday, it could well set up a winner-takes-all showdown between the sides in Cardiff on Monday night.
The bottom line is, Wales need at least three points from their last two games to mathematically stand any chance of reaching the play-offs, but realistically, four will be the absolute minimum needed.
What Wales need to do
If Wales win both of their games, only one of the following scenarios needs to happen for them to get at least a play-off place:
Group A: Netherlands beat Sweden.
Group E: Montenegro beat Denmark and Poland beat Montenegro.
Group F: Slovakia don't beat Scotland and England beat Slovenia.
Group H: Bosnia don't beat Belgium.
Group I: Turkey beat Iceland, Turkey don't beat Finland and Ukraine don't beat Croatia.
If Wales win one and draw one of their final two games, this needs to happen for them to get a play-off place:
Group H: Belgium beat Bosnia and Cyprus beat Greece.
How other teams can help Wales
Group A
This is one of the tightest groups in European qualifying, with four sides still battling it out for a top two spot.
Sweden — a point behind France — are currently second and have 10 mini-league points, but given that either Belarus or Luxembourg could finish bottom, it remains to be seen which points will be wiped out.
France, Sweden, Netherlands and Bulgaria all play one of the current bottom two in their final two games, so it's almost impossible to predict who will finish where with two rounds left to play.
France manager Didier Deschamps
If both France and Sweden won their final two outings, the positions in the group would remain the same, but Wales could potentially pip the latter if Luxembourg — who Sweden play next — finish at the bottom of the table.
It would mean Sweden could only reach 13 mini-league points, which would be one less than Wales' total if Coleman's men claim maximum points from their remaining games.
What suits Wales? For the top two to stay as it is and Luxembourg to finish bottom.
Group B
Unfortunately, there's no way this pool can help Wales as Switzerland and Portugal have both guaranteed themselves a top two place and both already have higher mini-league tallies than Wales can achieve.
Group C
Bizarrely, Northern Ireland could come to Wales' rescue, despite their magnificent form so far.
They've guaranteed themselves runner-up spot although they trail flawless Germany — who have won all eight of their matches — by five points.
The Green and White Army host the 2014 World Cup winners in Belfast on Thursday night before travelling to Norway three days later.
And if they were to lose both of those matches, they would finish with 13 mini-league points, again one fewer than Wales if they win both of their two games.
What suits Wales? Germany and Norway both to beat Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland manager Michael O'Neill
Group E
Kazakhstan are almost certain to finish at the bottom of this group, and it appears that there'll be a two-way battle between Montenegro and Denmark for runners-up spot, with Poland expected to top the table.
Montenegro and Denmark actually play each other next, with the former taking on Poland in their final game. Meanwhile, Denmark end with a home game against fourth-placed Romania.
Denmark and Montenegro have both claimed two wins against Kazakhstan, meaning they each have 10 mini-league points.
What suits Wales? Montenegro and Denmark to draw against each other, and then neither of those two sides to win their final match OR both sides to win one and lose one of their matches, leaving them on a maximum of 13 mini-league, a tally Wales could eclipse.
Group F
With a five-point lead and games against Slovenia and Lithuania to come, Gareth Southgate will feel fully confident that he can lead England to the World Cup.
But a three-way battle between Scotland, Slovenia and Slovakia has emerged for the runners-up spot.
The latter are currently second with 12 mini-league points, while Slovenia and Scotland both have eight, the same as Wales.
England manager Gareth Southgate
Scotland host Slovakia at Hampden Park on Thursday night, and victory for the visitors could be a nightmare for Wales as it would see Slovakia move on to 15 mini-league points. Given that they host whipping boys Malta in Trnava in their last game, they would almost certainly go on to finish second with a better total than Wales can achieve.
It means either a Scotland win or a draw would be the best outcome as far as Wales are concerned.
Slovenia play England at Wembley, and Coleman's troops could certainly do with a favour from the Three Lions. If England claim all three points, Slovenia could only reach a maximum of 11 mini-league points.
As far as the remaining scenarios are concerned, it's far too complicated at this stage to predict who'll actually finish second, given that Slovenia play Scotland in their final game. Only one point separates second to fourth.
Group G
Once again, this pool offers no solace to Wales as Spain and Italy have dominated the group and will take the top two spots with bumper points totals.
Group H
This group is arguably one of the clearest as things stand. Belgium have already won the pool while minnows Gibraltar will finish rock bottom.
And it's also a group that offers Wales plenty of hope.
Bosnia, Greece and Cyprus are all vying to claim the all-important runners-up berth, and there is a scenario that could help Wales if they only manage to claim four points from their last two games.
Belgium's head coach Roberto Martinez
Belgium take on Bosnia in Sarajevo on Saturday, and if Roberto Martinez's side can claim all three points, Bosnia would only be able to end with 11 mini-league points — a total Wales will beat with a win and a draw in their last two games.
On the same night, Cyprus host Greece in Nicosia.
Greece have 10 mini-league points, but can only reach 13 as they play bottom side Gibraltar in their final game, meaning whatever the outcome is, those points won't count towards a potential runner-up spot.
So if Cyprus defeat Greece, it would mean Wales would guarantee themselves a top eight spot in the mini-league system if they get a win and a draw in these two qualifiers.
What suits Wales? Belgium to beat Bosnia and Cyprus to beat Greece.
Group I
If you didn't have a headache before, then this group will certainly give you one.
Croatia, Iceland, Turkey and Ukraine are all in the mix to claim top two spots in Group I while Kosovo will finish at the bottom of the pile, so any results against them will be discounted when it comes to sorting out the play-off places.
But given that so many of the top four play each other over the next seven days, it remains to be seen exactly who will be runners-up.
As it stands, Croatia have 10 mini-league points while Iceland, Ukraine and Turkey have 13, 11 and eight respectively.
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Re: ' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:46 pm
As it stands we got 14 ire 13 points take away Moldova point's we have 8 ire 10 points! (as ire mald playing fri) Hope thats correct? So its upto us to beat Georgia or its going to be hard beating ire without bale as for qualifying playoffs simplest thing is to get more points than Bosnia in the two games. And good news is we are seeded if get through ?
Re: ' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:50 pm
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Re: ' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:08 pm
Forever Blue wrote::thumbright:
Annis saw this table and its without Moldova results taken out ,? I fear for Wales as Georgia is going to be tuff if we drew thats 9 points with Moldova result taken out, Ireland could deliberately lose and be better off by one point as only drop 3 points !! So giving them 10pnts? So we would have to win on Mon totally different scenario as pressure on us without bale. Hope my maths is correct
Re: ' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:27 pm
pembroke allan wrote:Forever Blue wrote::thumbright:
Annis saw this table and its without Moldova results taken out ,? I fear for Wales as Georgia is going to be tuff if we drew thats 9 points with Moldova result taken out, Ireland could deliberately lose and be better off by one point as only drop 3 points !! So giving them 10pnts? So we would have to win on Mon totally different scenario as pressure on us without bale. Hope my maths is correct
Allan, I do agree pressure is on us massively,but also on Ireland as well.
Bale is a gigantic loss for us.
Re: ' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:58 pm
Beat Georgia and Ireland and we are in the playoffs,draw away and win at home and we need other results to make the playoffs,I think we have enough to win both games but it won't be easy
Re: ' WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED? '
Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:30 pm
Forever Blue wrote:pembroke allan wrote:Forever Blue wrote::thumbright:
Annis saw this table and its without Moldova results taken out ,? I fear for Wales as Georgia is going to be tuff if we drew thats 9 points with Moldova result taken out, Ireland could deliberately lose and be better off by one point as only drop 3 points !! So giving them 10pnts? So we would have to win on Mon totally different scenario as pressure on us without bale. Hope my maths is correct
Allan, I do agree pressure is on us massively,but also on Ireland as well.
Bale is a gigantic loss for us.
Seriously think we will come up short whilst bales been dissapointing lately cannot underestimate his effect on the opposition when it comes to his presence in team.