" Stats site backs Wolves and City for promotion "
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:32 pm
" Stats site backs Wolves and City for promotion "
Saturday 11th November 2017
From Get Reading...
FiveThirtyEight collect data on every second tier team, including their attacking and defending, in order to predict outcomes of matches and the league overall.
The analysis backs Wolves and Cardiff City for promotion, giving them 53 per cent and 41 per cent chances of being in the Premier League next season.
At the opposite end of the table, Burton Albion (67 per cent), Birmingham City (61 per cent) and Bolton Wanderers (56 per cent) are likely to be playing League One football in the 2018/19 campaign.
Three people at FiveThirtyEight - Jay Boice, Reuben Fisher-Baum and Julia Wolfe - come up with their conclusions by analysing four trends: how many goals are scored in a match, 'adjusted goals', 'shot-based expected goals' and 'non-shot expected goals'.
According to their calculations, Royals will move up just one place from 18th to 17th by May, finishing on 59 points, 16 clear of the relegation zone.
The team will also end up with a goal difference of minus three, which is fairly average for a mid-table team, and only seven worse than Reading's tally last season.
Jaap Stam's men have a nine percent chance of relegation, eight percent of making the play-offs, four percent of automatic promotion and less than one percent of winning the title.
However, Royals defied the stats predictions last year, finishing third despite 'expected goals' data saying they faced too many shots and weren't creative enough.
Saturday 11th November 2017
From Get Reading...
FiveThirtyEight collect data on every second tier team, including their attacking and defending, in order to predict outcomes of matches and the league overall.
The analysis backs Wolves and Cardiff City for promotion, giving them 53 per cent and 41 per cent chances of being in the Premier League next season.
At the opposite end of the table, Burton Albion (67 per cent), Birmingham City (61 per cent) and Bolton Wanderers (56 per cent) are likely to be playing League One football in the 2018/19 campaign.
Three people at FiveThirtyEight - Jay Boice, Reuben Fisher-Baum and Julia Wolfe - come up with their conclusions by analysing four trends: how many goals are scored in a match, 'adjusted goals', 'shot-based expected goals' and 'non-shot expected goals'.
According to their calculations, Royals will move up just one place from 18th to 17th by May, finishing on 59 points, 16 clear of the relegation zone.
The team will also end up with a goal difference of minus three, which is fairly average for a mid-table team, and only seven worse than Reading's tally last season.
Jaap Stam's men have a nine percent chance of relegation, eight percent of making the play-offs, four percent of automatic promotion and less than one percent of winning the title.
However, Royals defied the stats predictions last year, finishing third despite 'expected goals' data saying they faced too many shots and weren't creative enough.
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Re: " Stats site backs Wolves and City for promotion "
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:59 pm
Whilst stats can tell different stories depending on how you use them these type of stats tend to be fairly accurate but while we may not be top 2 i am confident be in top 6 end season. 
Re: " Stats site backs Wolves and City for promotion "
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:14 pm
If stats were accurate and a true prediction as to what will happen, we could all retire very rich people and put the bookies out of business at the same time.
Re: " Stats site backs Wolves and City for promotion "
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:27 pm
Football isn't played on a computer unfortunately, these sites don't take into account a teams loss of form , injury's ,suspension, good form etc. We've had a great start but long way to go yet. Although with Warnock in charge I'm quietly confident we'll be in and around the playoffs most of the season