HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT CARDIFF WILL BE PROMOTED?
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:03 pm
THESE STUNNING FACTS WILL ANNOY NEIL WARNOCK BUT SHOW JUST HOW LIKELY CARDIFF CITY ARE TO BE PROMOTED.
By Chris Wathan
6 DEC 2017
Nobody wants to say it, but everything points to Cardiff City gaining promotion
Neil Warnock wants to make history at Cardiff City by gaining a record eighth promotion – and history is on his side.
Because, going back over the last 15 seasons, no-one has gained as many points as the Bluebirds at this stage of the season and not gone up automatically.
Veteran Warnock knows what it takes to guide a team to the next division with no manager having achieved it more times in their careers than the Yorkshireman.
So while he won't welcome such things being pointed out, and will want to still play his side’s chances down, even he has to accept that Cardiff are in a superb position if they are to realise Premier League dreams.
With almost half the campaign gone, Cardiff are currently second on an impressive 43 points from 20 games. Going back to the 2002/2003 Championship season, only five sides managed more points from the same number of fixtures – and all ended the season in the top two.
It is the points that gives a greater indicator of eventual success – and reason for hope – than the position in the automatic promotion places at this stage of the season.
Still, out of the 30 teams in the top two over those most recent 15 seasons, 18 of them – or 60% – were still there when it mattered in May. However, there are four examples of sides going from the top two after 20 games to failing to finish in the top six, with a couple close enough to home to remind that nothing’s a given in football; Cardiff were second in 2006/07 after 20 games only to finish in 13th, while Warnock was boss at Sheffield United when they went from second in 2003/04 at the same stage and ended up in eighth.
It is why points are a better clue as to how Cardiff’s current status stands up to past success stories in the second tier.
With three games to go until the Boxing Day game with Bolton that marks the start of the second-half of the season, getting past 40 points – and averaging more than two points a game to do so – is some going already.
Since 2002/03, only 20 teams have managed to get to the 40 point mark – something that took the Bluebirds until Valentine’s Day to achieve last season – with 20 games gone. Of those, 16 (80%) went up automatically. Most pertinently given that a top-six finish would have definitely been seen as a success before a ball was kicked this year, no side in 15 years has been on 40 points or more at this stage and not made the play-offs.
Furthermore, only once has a team hit those 40 points and not gone up either automatically or via the play-offs – Brighton the unlucky outlier when they had 42 points after 20 games in 2015/16 only to miss out on automatic promotion to Middlesbrough on goal difference and then lose to Sheffield Wednesday in the semi-finals.
There are, of course, plenty of examples of bolters, the later runners that come from nowhere to win a place in the Premier League.
With 20 games gone, Burnley were fifth on 35 points and ended up champions with 93 points in 2015/16. Sunderland were 14th on 27 points in 2006/07 and went on to finish top with 88 points. Back in 2011/12, Reading were 11th on 27 points and lifted the old trophy with 89 points come May.
But falls from the top are rarer, especially when the pace-setters are on as many points at this stage as they are now. Between them, Cardiff and leaders Wolves – four points ahead of the Bluebirds on 47) have shown 20-game form that is well above average when compared to the previous 15 seasons studied.
Indeed, only once has the top two at this stage earned more points than the 90 garnered by Warnock’s men and the side from Molineux, coming back in 2005/06. The well-travelled boss, who turned 69 last week, was on his way to his sixth-career promotion with Sheffield United when the Blades and leaders Reading amassed 93 points between them at the 20-game mark.
Of course, it is not a race to a specific points tally (though a 15-year average shows second place as 87 points and third as 82 points, suggesting 85 points as a target for automatic promotion).
Instead, it is about staying ahead of rivals – and it was with interest when Warnock talked of him paying more attention to the gap to the side in seventh, outside the play-offs, than the gap to the leaders or even the team in third.
Again, it goes back to Warnock’s perfectly justified claim that finishing in the top six, given the rebuilding and budgets compared to rivals, would represent Cardiff doing “remarkably well”. The Yorkshireman even admitted that “a half-decent second-half of the season” would earn a place in that shoot-out for the Premier League.
No side in the past 15 years has had as many points as Cardiff after 20 games and not won automatic promotion.
He will have noted, then, that the current gap to Ipswich in seventh is 11 points. What should confirm the opportunity in front of Warnock’s side is that only once in 15 years has that gap been bigger at the same stage – again back in 2005/06 when his second-placed Blades were an impressive 17 points ahead of the chasing pack.
Newcastle and Brighton last year, and Wolves and Birmingham in 2008/09, also had an 11 point difference from second to seventh. In both cases, the runaways went up automatically.
The 2005/06 season also saw the biggest gap from the automatic places to the team in third after 20 games – Sheffield United enjoying a whopping ten point cushion over Watford.
Yet despite Cardiff being criticised and talked down by rivals, the Bluebirds’ current six-point lead over Warnock’s old side and Severnside rivals Bristol City is bigger than any other lead at this stage over the past 15 seasons. Even more so than five points second-placed Brighton held over Reading at this stage last year, a season which was described as having two outstanding sides who eventually ran away with the division.
The stunning facts that make great reading
.No side in the past 15 years has had as many points as Cardiff after 20 games and not won automatic promotion.
.No team since 2002/03 has reached the 40-point mark after 20 games and not at least finished in the top six
.80% of the sides who had 40 points or more from the first 20 games went on to win automatic promotion
.18 of the last 30 teams to be in the Championship top two at this stage of the season went on to finish in the automatic promotion places
.Only once in the past 15 seasons has there been a bigger gap between second and seventh - when Warnock took Sheffield United up in 2005/06
.Only once since 2002/03 has there been a greater gap between second and the chasing pack than the six point lead the Bluebirds have over Sheffield United and Bristol City.
.Cardiff are currently two points better off from the same amount of games than the last Cardiff side to win promotion to the Premier League.
.The 43 points earned from the games so far means the Bluebirds are two points better off than eventual champions QPR were at the same stage in 2010/11 - the last team Warnock won promotion with.
It’s now excitement that will be running away with Cardiff fans who have every right to start believing that the Bluebirds are capable of making this a very special New Year, especially with Warnock adamant the return to fitness of key men can see their side improve.
They will have to with others likely to use January to do the same because, while the numbers from the past 15 years make for good reading, history is only ever written by the winners.
As Warnock will keep reminding his grounded group, there is some way to go before they can call themselves that.
By Chris Wathan
6 DEC 2017
Nobody wants to say it, but everything points to Cardiff City gaining promotion
Neil Warnock wants to make history at Cardiff City by gaining a record eighth promotion – and history is on his side.
Because, going back over the last 15 seasons, no-one has gained as many points as the Bluebirds at this stage of the season and not gone up automatically.
Veteran Warnock knows what it takes to guide a team to the next division with no manager having achieved it more times in their careers than the Yorkshireman.
So while he won't welcome such things being pointed out, and will want to still play his side’s chances down, even he has to accept that Cardiff are in a superb position if they are to realise Premier League dreams.
With almost half the campaign gone, Cardiff are currently second on an impressive 43 points from 20 games. Going back to the 2002/2003 Championship season, only five sides managed more points from the same number of fixtures – and all ended the season in the top two.
It is the points that gives a greater indicator of eventual success – and reason for hope – than the position in the automatic promotion places at this stage of the season.
Still, out of the 30 teams in the top two over those most recent 15 seasons, 18 of them – or 60% – were still there when it mattered in May. However, there are four examples of sides going from the top two after 20 games to failing to finish in the top six, with a couple close enough to home to remind that nothing’s a given in football; Cardiff were second in 2006/07 after 20 games only to finish in 13th, while Warnock was boss at Sheffield United when they went from second in 2003/04 at the same stage and ended up in eighth.
It is why points are a better clue as to how Cardiff’s current status stands up to past success stories in the second tier.
With three games to go until the Boxing Day game with Bolton that marks the start of the second-half of the season, getting past 40 points – and averaging more than two points a game to do so – is some going already.
Since 2002/03, only 20 teams have managed to get to the 40 point mark – something that took the Bluebirds until Valentine’s Day to achieve last season – with 20 games gone. Of those, 16 (80%) went up automatically. Most pertinently given that a top-six finish would have definitely been seen as a success before a ball was kicked this year, no side in 15 years has been on 40 points or more at this stage and not made the play-offs.
Furthermore, only once has a team hit those 40 points and not gone up either automatically or via the play-offs – Brighton the unlucky outlier when they had 42 points after 20 games in 2015/16 only to miss out on automatic promotion to Middlesbrough on goal difference and then lose to Sheffield Wednesday in the semi-finals.
There are, of course, plenty of examples of bolters, the later runners that come from nowhere to win a place in the Premier League.
With 20 games gone, Burnley were fifth on 35 points and ended up champions with 93 points in 2015/16. Sunderland were 14th on 27 points in 2006/07 and went on to finish top with 88 points. Back in 2011/12, Reading were 11th on 27 points and lifted the old trophy with 89 points come May.
But falls from the top are rarer, especially when the pace-setters are on as many points at this stage as they are now. Between them, Cardiff and leaders Wolves – four points ahead of the Bluebirds on 47) have shown 20-game form that is well above average when compared to the previous 15 seasons studied.
Indeed, only once has the top two at this stage earned more points than the 90 garnered by Warnock’s men and the side from Molineux, coming back in 2005/06. The well-travelled boss, who turned 69 last week, was on his way to his sixth-career promotion with Sheffield United when the Blades and leaders Reading amassed 93 points between them at the 20-game mark.
Of course, it is not a race to a specific points tally (though a 15-year average shows second place as 87 points and third as 82 points, suggesting 85 points as a target for automatic promotion).
Instead, it is about staying ahead of rivals – and it was with interest when Warnock talked of him paying more attention to the gap to the side in seventh, outside the play-offs, than the gap to the leaders or even the team in third.
Again, it goes back to Warnock’s perfectly justified claim that finishing in the top six, given the rebuilding and budgets compared to rivals, would represent Cardiff doing “remarkably well”. The Yorkshireman even admitted that “a half-decent second-half of the season” would earn a place in that shoot-out for the Premier League.
No side in the past 15 years has had as many points as Cardiff after 20 games and not won automatic promotion.
He will have noted, then, that the current gap to Ipswich in seventh is 11 points. What should confirm the opportunity in front of Warnock’s side is that only once in 15 years has that gap been bigger at the same stage – again back in 2005/06 when his second-placed Blades were an impressive 17 points ahead of the chasing pack.
Newcastle and Brighton last year, and Wolves and Birmingham in 2008/09, also had an 11 point difference from second to seventh. In both cases, the runaways went up automatically.
The 2005/06 season also saw the biggest gap from the automatic places to the team in third after 20 games – Sheffield United enjoying a whopping ten point cushion over Watford.
Yet despite Cardiff being criticised and talked down by rivals, the Bluebirds’ current six-point lead over Warnock’s old side and Severnside rivals Bristol City is bigger than any other lead at this stage over the past 15 seasons. Even more so than five points second-placed Brighton held over Reading at this stage last year, a season which was described as having two outstanding sides who eventually ran away with the division.
The stunning facts that make great reading
.No side in the past 15 years has had as many points as Cardiff after 20 games and not won automatic promotion.
.No team since 2002/03 has reached the 40-point mark after 20 games and not at least finished in the top six
.80% of the sides who had 40 points or more from the first 20 games went on to win automatic promotion
.18 of the last 30 teams to be in the Championship top two at this stage of the season went on to finish in the automatic promotion places
.Only once in the past 15 seasons has there been a bigger gap between second and seventh - when Warnock took Sheffield United up in 2005/06
.Only once since 2002/03 has there been a greater gap between second and the chasing pack than the six point lead the Bluebirds have over Sheffield United and Bristol City.
.Cardiff are currently two points better off from the same amount of games than the last Cardiff side to win promotion to the Premier League.
.The 43 points earned from the games so far means the Bluebirds are two points better off than eventual champions QPR were at the same stage in 2010/11 - the last team Warnock won promotion with.
It’s now excitement that will be running away with Cardiff fans who have every right to start believing that the Bluebirds are capable of making this a very special New Year, especially with Warnock adamant the return to fitness of key men can see their side improve.
They will have to with others likely to use January to do the same because, while the numbers from the past 15 years make for good reading, history is only ever written by the winners.
As Warnock will keep reminding his grounded group, there is some way to go before they can call themselves that.
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Re: HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT CARDIFF WILL BE PROMOTED?
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:19 pm
Great post, it makes for interesting reading, although I admit to not reading all of it, more interested in the coloured circles!! It seems as though we've a good chance of automaitc promotion, however we are not even half way through this season and success has been too few and far between for our mighty club, let's hope that if we do go up we stay a bit longer than last time, the future does look promising, with quality players still to return to form and fitness, let's keep our fingers crossed.
Re: HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT CARDIFF WILL BE PROMOTED?
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:54 pm
those red segments should be blue.
Re: HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT CARDIFF WILL BE PROMOTED?
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:25 pm
Not wanting to bore you all with re-printing the speil above, but don't we have FULHAM HOME on Boxing Day? (3rd section of speil) Or have they changed the date of Boxing Day this year 
?
?
Re: HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT CARDIFF WILL BE PROMOTED?
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:44 pm
BLUE54 wrote:Not wanting to bore you all with re-printing the speil above, but don't we have FULHAM HOME on Boxing Day? (3rd section of speil) Or have they changed the date of Boxing Day this year
yes he made a mistake puttting Bolton { which is the previous game and the final game of the first half of our season }in instead of Fulham who will be the 1st team we play for the second time..
but the stats are sound and the point he was making about 3 games to the halfway point where we will have played everyone once.