STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

We definitely got a chance of automatic, well 40% chance according to that lol when you one point behind 2nd how can you not say we haven’t a chance and on a good run of form at the right time.

We definitely got a chance of automatic, well 40% chance according to that lol when you one point behind 2nd how can you not say we haven’t a chance and on a good run of form at the right time.

hope Ned doesnt see this

How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!

How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!

looks like theres a little light green for playoffs there, so probably 98%-2%

How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!

Looking again maybe they are 99% ?

Still rubbish and totally random !!!
But on reflection makes us automatic, I change my mind it's brilliant and must be correct

How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!

looks like theres a little light green for playoffs there, so probably 98%-2%

Yes I can see it now, I think you're right !!!

So if I'm reading that right we have a 38% chance of being in first two but Villa only got a 21% chance???

I would say it should be the other way around...but hopefully whatever stats they use will turn out correct

So if I'm reading that right we have a 38% chance of being in first two but Villa only got a 21% chance???

I would say it should be the other way around...but hopefully whatever stats they use will turn out correct

No idea what they used to get this , but we have 8 home 7 away games left. Perhaps villa are the other way around and that might have had an impact


95% chance of making the playoffs looks a little confident mind. Especially if you listen to some on here

We have just completed the 2nd third of the season and it's clear we are starting to get things together after the Christmas and New Year 'blip'

If we have a final third anywhere near as good as the first, we'll be promoted automatically!

How have we got nearly double the chance of getting 2nd ahead of Villa, when they have a point more than us?

How have we got nearly double the chance of getting 2nd ahead of Villa, when they have a point more than us?

Read the comments petesmeatmate

This is the writeup as to how the stats were generated: https://experimental361.com/2018/02/11/ ... -feb-2018/

Basically looks like he looks at the probability of how many goals a team scores and concedes on average in a match, and then simulates the match based on these probabilities. He repeats this for every match each team has left for the rest of the season thousands of times, and uses the results of that to generate the final probabilities.

The guy's entire blog is actually really interesting, I definitely recommend reading more of his articles.