STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

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STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby Forever Blue » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:49 am

STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion
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STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby BobbyBlue » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:54 am

We definitely got a chance of automatic, well 40% chance according to that lol when you one point behind 2nd how can you not say we haven’t a chance and on a good run of form at the right time.
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby paulh_85 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:58 am

BobbyBlue wrote:We definitely got a chance of automatic, well 40% chance according to that lol when you one point behind 2nd how can you not say we haven’t a chance and on a good run of form at the right time.



hope Ned doesnt see this
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby Bluebina » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:05 am

How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby paulh_85 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:06 am

Bluebina wrote:How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!




looks like theres a little light green for playoffs there, so probably 98%-2%
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby Bluebina » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:07 am

Bluebina wrote:How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!



Looking again maybe they are 99% ?

Still rubbish and totally random !!!
But on reflection makes us automatic, I change my mind it's brilliant and must be correct :laughing6: :ayatollah:
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby Bluebina » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:08 am

paulh_85 wrote:
Bluebina wrote:How the hell can Wolves be 100% ??????

That's rubbish, although we go have a great chance.

Expectation levels and pressure lower here than Villa, and possibly Derby ?

Neil Warnock !!!

A good transfer window and some great new players, and some great players already back and due back from injury !!!




looks like theres a little light green for playoffs there, so probably 98%-2%


Yes I can see it now, I think you're right !!!
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby oohahhPaulMillar » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:45 pm

So if I'm reading that right we have a 38% chance of being in first two but Villa only got a 21% chance???

I would say it should be the other way around...but hopefully whatever stats they use will turn out correct :bluescarf:
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby paulh_85 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:25 pm

oohahhPaulMillar wrote:So if I'm reading that right we have a 38% chance of being in first two but Villa only got a 21% chance???

I would say it should be the other way around...but hopefully whatever stats they use will turn out correct :bluescarf:



No idea what they used to get this , but we have 8 home 7 away games left. Perhaps villa are the other way around and that might have had an impact


95% chance of making the playoffs looks a little confident mind. Especially if you listen to some on here
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby Sven » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:48 pm

We have just completed the 2nd third of the season and it's clear we are starting to get things together after the Christmas and New Year 'blip'

If we have a final third anywhere near as good as the first, we'll be promoted automatically! :thumbright: :ayatollah:
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby petesmeat » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:37 pm

How have we got nearly double the chance of getting 2nd ahead of Villa, when they have a point more than us?
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby CaerphillyBluebird15 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:40 pm

petesmeat wrote:How have we got nearly double the chance of getting 2nd ahead of Villa, when they have a point more than us?


Read the comments petesmeatmate
Against Modern Football
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Re: STATS: The likelihood of Cardiff City gain promotion

Postby blooey » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:56 pm

This is the writeup as to how the stats were generated: https://experimental361.com/2018/02/11/ ... -feb-2018/

Basically looks like he looks at the probability of how many goals a team scores and concedes on average in a match, and then simulates the match based on these probabilities. He repeats this for every match each team has left for the rest of the season thousands of times, and uses the results of that to generate the final probabilities.

The guy's entire blog is actually really interesting, I definitely recommend reading more of his articles.
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