The points tally Cardiff City will need for survival

A forum for all things Cardiff City

The points tally Cardiff City will need for survival

Postby Forever Blue » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:52 am

The points tally Cardiff City will need for survival and why it should be the lowest in history -

Tuesday 13th November 2018

The gap is getting wider. It's getting harder for the likes of Cardiff, Fulham, Newcastle United, Huddersfield, Southampton, Crystal Palace and Burnley.

It also means the famous 40-point figure for survival is rendered virtually irrelevant.

So how many points WILL be enough to survive this season?







What history tells us

West Bromwich Albion hold the record for the lowest points tally (in a 38-game Premier League season) to secure top flight safety. They finished the 2004/05 campaign with 34 points after a dramatic final day escape.

Yet history tells us that the Baggies' astonishing piece of escapology isn't a one-off and the 40-point figure in recent years has become something of a misnoma. Hardly ever do the team in 17th place need 40 points to stay up.

Watford in 2016/17 are the only side in the past seven seasons to finish 17th with 40 points. Last season, Southampton (36) and Huddersfield (37) survived and appear to be part of a growing trend.

In simple terms, since the madcap events of the 2015/16 season (Leicester winning the league, Chelsea finishing 10th, Liverpool 8th, West Ham and Southampton in the top seven) English football's superpowers have bucked their ideas up. They've spent vast sums and appointed the best managers in the world.

The status quo of the noughties, when Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea dominated, has been restored albeit with slightly different clubs.




The lesser lights of the league, however, have been squeezed more than ever — certainly more than when Warnock's Sheffield United were relegated on goal difference after earning 38 points.



"I'd take that now," Warnock quipped when reminded of the Blades' 2006/07 points tally.

And why not. In 10 of the past 14 seasons since 2005, 38 points would have been more than enough to stay up.

The teams who finished 17th in the Premier League

2004/04: West Brom - 34 points

2005/06: Portsmouth - 38 points

2006/07: Wigan - 38 points

2007/08: Fulham - 36 points

2008/09: Hull - 35 points

2009/10: West Ham - 35 points

2010/11: Wolves - 40 points

2011/12: QPR - 37 points

2012/13: Sunderland - 39 points

2013/14: West Brom - 36 points

2014/15: Aston Villa - 38 points

2015/16: Sunderland - 39 points

2016/17: Watford - 40 points

2017/18: Southampton - 36 points

This year's survival scrap

It's frighteningly close between the bottom seven this season. They keep getting points off each other.

So while there will be no record-low Derby County this season — despite what Chris Sutton says — there isn't a huge amount of consistency at the Premier League's basement.

Cardiff for example have beaten Fulham but lost to Burnley. Fulham have beaten Burnley but lost to Huddersfield. And so on.

With Newcastle in 14th place on nine points and the Cottagers bottom on five, it looks as though six or seven teams will battle it out to stay up this year — with Cardiff firmly in the mix.

Southampton and Crystal Palace are currently just above the drop zone (and Cardiff) on goal difference, level on eight points.

Extrapolating their total over 38 games would give them just 26 points — enough to finish 17th based on current trends. It would be a remarkable new record, but as Warnock said the situation gives unfancied teams like the Bluebirds a big boost.


"It does look as if it's going to be low this year," said Warnock on the magic number needed.

"And we could benefit from that more than anyone, because we're hanging in there now — even though we should have more points — in that bottom six and we know we can put pressure on other teams."

Cardiff have proven they can beat teams at home and look likely to remain in the mix throughout this strange campaign.

The big divide and Cardiff's big opportunity

"I think up till Christmas, every game is winnable for us if we have a good day," said Warnock last week and the Brighton game proved him right.

Because Cardiff have played the league's top five and lost on each occasion, they must target upcoming games against Wolves, Southampton, West Ham and Watford for points.

But they're not alone in failing to shock the big boys.

Of the 24 games between the bottom seven and the top five this season, the big teams have won 23. Liverpool's regulation 2-0 victory over Fulham and Tottenham's 1-0 win at Crystal Palace cemented that record at the weekend. Only Palace's draw against Arsenal a fortnight ago has gone against the pale.



NEIL WARNOCK:


"You can't really look that far ahead, but the big teams are pulling away," admitted Warnock.

"There's not as many shocks this year with the big teams.

"It's the first time the three teams are undefeated at this stage at the top, so there is a wider margin.

"But I think anybody in that bottom half could hit a bad run and it is wide open down there. Brighton will still be looking down at us rather than looking up."





Cardiff don't face a top five team until 2019.

That's a huge opportunity for them to steal a march on their rivals.

Southampton, for example, face Tottenham, Arsenal and Man City before the end of the year. Palace have Man City and Chelsea. It's on.










Comparing bottom seven's run-in until New Year

Newcastle: Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Everton (A), Wolves (H), Huddersfield (A), Fulham (H), Liverpool (A), Watford (A)

Burnley: Newcastle (H), Palace (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (H), Spurs (A), Arsenal (A), Everton (H), West Ham (H)

Palace: Man Utd (A), Burnley (H), Brighton (A), West Ham (A), Leicester (H), Man City (A), Cardiff (H), Chelsea (H)

Southampton: Fulham (A), Man Utd (H), Spurs (A), Cardiff (A), Arsenal (H), Huddersfield (A), West Ham (H), Man City (H)

Cardiff: Everton (A), Wolves (H), West Ham (A), Southampton (H), Watford (A), Man Utd (H), Palace (A), Leicester (A)

Huddersfield: Wolves (A), Brighton (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (H), Southampton (H), Man Utd (A) Fulham (A)

Fulham: Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Leicester (H), Man Utd (A), West Ham (H), Newcastle (A), Wolves (H), Huddersfield (H)
Attachments
0_PLsurvive.jpg
0_PLsurvive.jpg (99.97 KiB) Viewed 661 times
Annis Jnr Author and Publisher of 7 Books.

My 7th Book is Available Now "MY STORY"

http://www.annisabraham.co.uk/books/buy-books/
http://www.annisabraham.co.uk/news/

My email : annisabraham@aol.com
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/annisabraham
User avatar
Forever Blue
Admin
 
Posts: 163300
Joined: Sat Nov 21, 2009 11:30 am

The points tally Cardiff City will need for survival

Advertisement

Advertisement
Login or Register to remove this ad.


Return to General Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bakedalasker, Cardiff_CPT, Clickagy [Bot], cmorris1927, Facebook [Bot], Google [Bot], Grapeshot [Bot], ias [Bot], pembroke allan, Proximic [Bot] and 153 guests

Disclaimer :
The views and comments entered in these forums are personal and are not necessarily those of the management of this board.
The management of this board is not responsible for the content of any external internet sites.