Police theory that a life raft was used

Braking on sky news that they think the plane landed on the water and a life raft was used ,A little bit of hope.

Come on, let's all hope

https://news.sky.com/story/missing-plan ... t-11615106

Do we know WHY the police are now moving ahead with that, as their main theory? Pure hope, or just a theory based on the fact that one was onboard?

Suggests that the debris found in the water may well have not been from his plane, I’d imagine?

I pray that they are on a raft waiting for rescue, if he is an experienced pilot he may have had some survival training.

I pray that they are on a raft waiting for rescue, if he is an experienced pilot he may have had some survival training.

Fingers crossed that would be absolutely amazing!

A fresh update from Guernsey Police on the four possibilities on the search for Emiliano Sala:

A statement read: "We are searching based on four possibilities:
"1. They have landed elsewhere but not made contact.
"2. They landed on water, have been picked up by a passing ship but not made contact
"3. They landed on water and made it into the life raft we know was on board
"4. The aircraft broke up on contact with the water, leaving them in the sea.
"Our search area is prioritised on the life raft option. More updates as information becomes available."

As I see it,
possibility 1: Unlikely, as unless they are on an uninhabited island, with no means of communication, (cell phones need masts) then today's technology means that they would have made contact by now somehow
possibility 2: Unlikely, as ships have radios and they would have alerted the authorities
possibility 3: Its possible, and they are adrift and at the mercy of currents etc (there were reports of red flares on Monday night I read). Again, mobile phones no good on a raft, so cant make contact.
possibility 4: Tragically the most likely, but if the aircraft broke up on impact, leaving them in the sea, surely there would have been debris spotted by now, these planes do not have all their components heavier than water, granted the engine would plunge down the depths but other parts of the aircraft should be floating. However, an impact with water at speed causing a break up would leave little hope for surviving such impact.

Its all awful.