“ The truth Sean Morrison “

The truth about Sean Morrison's return and the real reason for Cardiff City's defensive collapse

Is Morrison to blame for Cardiff's recently leaky defence and defeats to Watford, Everton and Wolves?


Friday 8th March 2019

By Dominic Booth





Cardiff City have arguably been one of the surprise packages this season, particularly given that the general consensus before the Premier League commenced was that they would be comfortably relegated.

After 29 matches though, Neil Warnock's side are still very much alive, which is more than can be said for Fulham and Huddersfield Town.

The club currently sit 18th, just two points behind Southampton, and although that's not ideal, it's a position that perhaps would have been accepted by Warnock had it been offered to him on matchday one.

Nevertheless, the general mood surrounding the club at present is frustration and concern, largely because the team have conceded two, three and five in their last three league matches. Before those defeats, Cardiff were safe in 17th and level on points with Rafa Benitez's Newcastle, having won back-to-back matches against Bournemouth and Southampton. Thus, supporters are wondering what has gone wrong, particularly defensively.

Crucially too, the defensive collapse has coincided with Sean Morrison's return to the side , as he missed the aforementioned wins due to injury.

Consequently, he's now shouldering a lot of the blame, but is that justified? Let's take a look...

The simple answer to the question posed is no - it's not Morrison's fault, certainly when focusing on the Expected Goals (xG) posted by the team. xG provides a more thorough insight into the story of matches, by considering and weighting every chance rather than simply analysing the ones that result in goals.

Morrison was criticised after the 2-0 defeat to Wolves in particular, but also the losses to Watford and Everton.






The stats are clear: since Morrison's return, Cardiff have lost the xG battle in each of their three matches.

Against Wolves, the home side were expected to score at least three goals based on the chances that they created, compared to Cardiff's total of just 0.7.

Before that, Everton were predicted to score one, whereas Cardiff amassed chances worth just 0.22 xG, which essentially means a goal was very unlikely. Then, in the contest versus Watford, Cardiff's xG was 1.46 compared to the away side's 2.75.

Ultimately these, numbers suggest that Cardiff were deserved losers in the fixtures, but they should have only conceded around seven in the process, rather than the hefty figure of 10.






Why did they concede more goals than they ought to?

Comparing the past three games to the previous four matches that Morrison didn't play - when Sol Bamba and Bruno Manga formed a successful defensive partnership - the pattern is similar, but with one exception.

Versus Southampton , although Warnock's side snatched the three points, the xG suggests they should have essentially lost 2-0 based on the chances on the day.

Against Arsenal, the Gunners amassed 2.6 to Cardiff 0.6, and at Newcastle, Benitez's side created chances worth 2.3 goals compared to the 0.24 of Cardiff.

The exception is the 2-0 win over Bournemouth , as the team managed to restrict Eddie Howe's men to just 0.35 xG whilst creating 2.5 for themselves, which indicates a dominant performance and shows the Bamba-Manga partnership was functioning.

Yet that game appears to be an outlier.



Overall, Cardiff's defence appears to perform to a similar level with or without Morrison, and although the team have conceded 10 in three matches, the underlying numbers suggest that the defeats shouldn't have been so heavy.

Often, when teams under or over perform what xG has predicted for them during a short period of time, it's simply due to good or bad luck rather than any imminent catastrophe. It can often mean that they'll soon revert to the norm and Cardiff's upcoming games may be a lot closer.


But with Bamba absent for the rest of the season, it's reasonable to suggest Warnock will have to make some sort of tactical adjustment in order for his side to post the defensive numbers that were demonstrated in isolation against Bournemouth.

In short, Morrison is not solely to blame for the recent collapse, but that defensive display against the Cherries - that the skipper didn't feature in - will need to be replicated against West Ham this weekend.

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Its ok the stats to explain things gives insight to how we are doing but the thing it doesnt do is show whats changed since Morrison's return? And that is the stability and confidence in defence as changed just a personal observation but against Watford it was there for all to see.

Whole defensive set up is not working. Ask Shaun Edwards how it is done.

Whole defensive set up is not working. Ask Shaun Edwards how it is done.

Yes use rugby tackles to stop opposition!

Whole defensive set up is not working. Ask Shaun Edwards how it is done.

Yes use rugby tackles to stop opposition!

Callum Patterson’s got that one sorted already

The shape of the team changed in accomodating him. As i've said before, we can't play in the premier league with 3 one dimensional centre backs, in whatever formation

The shape of the team changed in accomodating him. As i've said before, we can't play in the premier league with 3 one dimensional centre backs, in whatever formation

Said same after Watford game it as brought in indecision in defence maybe eith bamba out he will revert back with 2 central defenders

Whole defensive set up is not working. Ask Shaun Edwards how it is done.

Yes use rugby tackles to stop opposition!

Callum Patterson’s got that one sorted already

Bring back Gabor Gyepes!!

I've been thinking about this for a while and one thing I do think has changed since Morrisons return is that our defensive line has sat a lot deeper.

With Manga and Bamba at the back we had 2 CB who are quite quick compared to Morrison.

Look at where Ralls picks up the ball for KZ winner it's much higher on the pitch.

If we sit deeper as a defence it gives opposition a lot more space and make a our press much harder. Look at Wolves first goal both Morrison and Bamba got drawn out of the area but they're starting point was on the 18 yard box.

Id love to see the actual perfomance analysis tapes but my guess is we're playing 10 yards deeper since Morrison has come back.

His first two matches back was awful to be fair. But Wolves he did ok whilst the rest had a mare.

Ye I'm not one to blast City players especially after what's happened. I'm thinking more of it tactically, has the change in personal also meant a natural change in shape.

Dont get me wrong weve also played teams who are simpley better than us but weve seemed miles off their level.

Morrison has always lacked pace and he's weary of leaving the box. Championship you can get away with it but prem there's just to much quality. If you give teams space, they rip you apart with their movement. Most teams now press high unless their playing one of the top clubs!! No evidence to back it up I just felt watching both Bournemouth and Southampton we played higher which also meant JR & Arter etc. We're more effective.

I stopped reading after the first line 'Cardiff City have arguably been one of the surprise packages this season' eh??

Whole defensive set up is not working. Ask Shaun Edwards how it is done.

Yes use rugby tackles to stop opposition!

Remember Gabor Gypes against Leicester?

No knockers today the best cb pairings in the club well done mozzer

Today can see why having Morrison in with manga bamba didnt work! Just 2 big central defenders with 2 wide ones and we looked safe bamba injury blessing in disguise maybe? Morrison didn't do anything special other than boot ball upfield but better that than mistakes of previous games.....

Hes a centre back thats what hes supposed to do and he did it well give credit when its due

Today can see why having Morrison in with manga bamba didnt work! Just 2 big central defenders with 2 wide ones and we looked safe bamba injury blessing in disguise maybe? Morrison didn't do anything special other than boot ball upfield but better that than mistakes of previous games.....

we won games with mozza and bamba..