Bluebirds to hit 82 points

So far this season Cardiff City have won 37 points from 18 games. If you ignore the first 5 games we have gained 22 points from the next 13 games. Assuming this is a realistic target going gorwards we should end up with

15 points - first 5 games (done)
22 points - next 13 games (done)
22 points - next 13 games.
22 points - next 13 games
1 point - remaining 2 games ( pessimistic but allows for a barren spell)

Total 82 points

Purely my estimate. What are your thoughts on what we can achieve ? Where will that place us?

I reckon 3rd

Last edited by JayCee on Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

why ignore the first 5 games ?

why ignore the first 5 games ?

Only ignored for the calculation going forward, the points are included

Should put us comfortably in the playoffs and more than achievable. Wolves seem to be starting pulling away at the top and could spend again in January. Villa seem to be clicking now so fancy them to get automatic.

i would settle for 82 points..but like Paul i dont get why the first 5 are excluded..

much prefer the Carlsburg method with them included
18 games 37pts
another 18...37pts
9 games....18pts
win the last one..3pts..
total 99points

Those 13 done games included:
6 wins
3 loses
4 draws.

One of those wins I though we were lucky Brentford home 2-0. The rest we deserved.
Out of the 3 loses I felt we were unlucky with one Wurzels 2-1. The other 2 were richly deserved losses.
Out of the 4 draws we should have won at least 2 of them, Derby and Millwall both 0-0 and at home. The other 2 Fulham and Sheff Wed we came back from going down and I personally believed we deserved the draws.

So overall we were lucky with 4 of the points, Brentford 3 and Sheff Wed 1 late goal. Then it balances out as we should have got more out of Derby and Millwall, 4 points lost, and a draw against the Wurzels perhaps really should have won so 1 or 3 lost.

Those 13 done games included:
6 wins
3 loses
4 draws.

One of those wins I though we were lucky Brentford home 2-0. The rest we deserved.
Out of the 3 loses I felt we were unlucky with one Wurzels 2-1. The other 2 were richly deserved losses.
Out of the 4 draws we should have won at least 2 of them, Derby and Millwall both 0-0 and at home. The other 2 Fulham and Sheff Wed we came back from going down and I personally believed we deserved the draws.

So overall we were lucky with 4 of the points, Brentford 3 and Sheff Wed 1 late goal. Then it balances out as we should have got more out of Derby and Millwall, 4 points lost, and a draw against the Wurzels perhaps really should have won so 1 or 3 lost.

good post..
id have taken a point at Ashton gate though. even before the sending off.

We are exactly on the same points 37, & the same goal difference +12 as we were after 18 games in our promotion year, & then as now our 17th game was an away win at Barnsley. The only difference is we were top then & stayed there for the next 28 games. Maybe this time we will stay 2nd for the next 28 games. Well you can always hope.

I suppose it's a pity football does not follow any fixed formula that accurately forecasts this sort of prediction. If it did, we would not just be following clubs, we would be rich enough to own them.

Here,s another way to look at it,

37 points - first 18 games.
37 points next 18 games = 74 points

That leaves 10 games to get approx 16/17 points out of a possible 30 for automatic promotion.

Draw with forest tomorrow takes us to 2 points a game average on course to win the league most years

Or a loss and a win in next 2 games takes us 20 games 40 points

Here,s another way to look at it,

37 points - first 18 games.
37 points next 18 games = 74 points

That leaves 10 games to get approx 16/17 points out of a possible 30 for automatic promotion.

dont see 84 being enough this year...but you never know

Here,s another way to look at it,

37 points - first 18 games.
37 points next 18 games = 74 points

That leaves 10 games to get approx 16/17 points out of a possible 30 for automatic promotion.

dont see 84 being enough this year...but you never know

90/91 will be enough though.

Here,s another way to look at it,

37 points - first 18 games.
37 points next 18 games = 74 points

That leaves 10 games to get approx 16/17 points out of a possible 30 for automatic promotion.

dont see 84 being enough this year...but you never know

74 + 16/17 = 90/91