swilsh wrote:Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.
Thanks indeed for the Ted Talk Swilsh, again I commend you for using a well reasoned and non-abrasive tact.
There are a few holes in your argument though that do need picking up.
The first is you allude to the fact that the UK economy is the sixth largest because of our position in the EU, that simply isn't true. According to the World Bank report, we were the worlds 5th largest economy back in '73 when we joined the EU - this is a minor point really, but I felt it shouldn't just be slipped in there.
Also, I feel the analogy around apples is somewhat misleading. The way you frame we would really, really need them apples if we were to offer a 0% tariff! If we do go WTO, the government has indicated we will where possible simply replicate the EU tariffs with slightly more generous quotas than we would have held as part of the EU to help ease the transition.
I think we can both agree WTO is not a fix-all solution, but it does provide a mechanism for a clean hard Brexit - and what will eventually follow for Britain to enter into a number of bilateral FTAs.
Where we disagree, is how swiftly this will happen. Whilst I don't think it will happen overnight, I also don't think it will be the endless wait you predict either. Going back to 2016, 7 of the top 10 economies in the world had already approached us to discuss FTAs. Just off the top of my head New Zealand, Australia, USA, Switzerland, Canada and Japan have all recently made public statements in one shape or another about establishing FTAs with us.
Remember, whilst the politicians at Downing St and in Brussels are bickering like children, there are very good people working in the foreign office with their international peers who will be working out what is feasible in what scenarios and they will have been doing so since the referendum was announced even. I have very little time for our political class but the machinations of the UK government behind the scenes away from the circus show of parliament is something very different indeed.
A final point is just to dispel your doomsday scenario a tiny bit. The government has always stated that our regulations on standards will mirror what they are today within the EU, and under WTO rules we would be protected by the standards they set for all other countries, which we already meet comfortably. Same goes for red tape, the government has already outlined simplified customs processes for UK businesses trading in the EU - and for all their huffing and puffing, the EU, I believe will ultimately do similar.
The sky has been falling in since the day this all began. Various shit shows have been predicted, none have materialised and the world has kept slowly plodding on.
It's not going to be easy foir sure, but nothing worthwhile ever is and you gotta go through pain before you can grow.
I really did like your Leo analogy though - made me laugh.