Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:42 pm
PPG denotes points-per-game.
Current Top 6
Cardiff 64
Hull 56
Leicester 53
Watford 53
Palace 52
Boro 50
Current Top 6 Overall PPG
Cardiff 2.13
Hull 1.81
Leicester 1.77
Watford 1.71
Palace 1.68
Boro 1.61
(Top 6 Average 1.78)
Current Top 6 Home PPG
Cardiff 2.64
Hull 1.93
Leicester 2.33
Watford 1.69
Palace 2.13
Boro 2.13
(Top 6 Average 2.14)
Current Top 6 Away PPG
Cardiff 1.69
Hull 1.69
Leicester 1.20
Watford 1.73
Palace 1.25
Boro 1.07
(Top 6 Average 1.44)
Home Games remaining
Cardiff 9
Hull 8
Leicester 8
Watford 7
Palace 8
Boro 7
Away Games remaining
Cardiff 7
Hull 7
Leicester 8
Watford 8
Palace 7
Boro 8
Projected Home W-D-L for run-in based on season PPG
Cardiff 8-0-1 Pts 24
Hull 4-3-1 Pts 15
Leicester 6-1-1 Pts 19
Watford 3-3-1 Pts 12
Palace 5-2-1 Pts 17
Boro 5-0-2 Pts 15
Projected Away W-D-L for run-in based on season PPG
Cardiff 3-3-1 Pts 12
Hull 3-3-1 Pts 12
Leicester 2-4-1 Pts 10
Watford 4-2-2 Pts 14
Palace 2-3-2 Pts 9
Boro 2-3-3 Pts 9
Projected Final Table based on Home/Away PPG. If we maintain current form we will hit 100 points.
Cardiff 100
Hull 83
Leicester 82
Watford 79
Palace 78
Boro 74
Based on historical data, it is unlikely that any team will have >2 PPG in away games. Projected Final Points Totals (minus Cardiff) if all teams hit 2 PPG for their remaining away games and win all but one of their remaining home games expected worst case scenario if we drop points. This would see all teams have a PPG of between 2.27 and 2.33 for the run-in (Reading hit 2.38 for their last 16 games last season to come from 6th to win the league)
Hull 91
Leicester 90
Watford 87
Palace 87
Boro 84
Worst case scenario Top 3 run-in Home/Away W-D-L and Pts
Hull 7-0-1 / 4-2-1 / Pts 91
Leicester 7-0-1 / 5-1-2 / Pts 90 (GD + 26)
Cardiff 5-2-2 / 2-3-2 / Pts 90 (GD +21) 26 points from a possible 48 (1.63 PPG)
West Brom, Wolves and QPR finished on 27, 28 and 29 from a possible 48 respectively, in their title winning years (2008, 2009, 2011) so it's not inconceivable that we could finish with a similar return from our run-in.
Finishing with away form of 2-3-2 would give us 1.29 PPG, which is still higher than Leicester, Palace and Boro have got this season. Again, not inconceivable.
Conclusion given the inherent advantage there is from playing at home we are in a strong position given that we have the most home games and the joint-least away games of our rivals left to play. Our pitch should make it easier for the likes of Whittingham, Kimbo, Bellamy and Campbell to play their best football.
However, if Hull and Leicester both put on runs similar (but not necessarily as good as) Reading's last year, then even an average run in from us could see us miss out. Admittedly that would see us dropping from our current rate of 2.13 PPG to just 1.63 PPG (roughly the level that Boro are playing at) but it could happen.
We know that if we maintain our current form we will win the league but the idea of this is to show what could happen if we start dropping points. The season is far from over.
Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:33 pm
I agree. This is football. It is far from over.