I reckon we need 6 points for the play offs

Blackpool are the team in 7th place on 57 points. They have 6 games left so therefore can win a maximum of 18 points which would put them on 75. We at present have 65 so to finish above the nearest team that could knock us out of a play off spot we need 11 points from 6 games.

So now lets look at Blackpools remaining 6 games:-

Scunthorpe A
Doncaster H
Newcastle A
Forest H
Peterborough A
Bristol City H

I am going to be generous and give them maximum points from the Scunthorpe, Peterborough and Birstol City games. Thats 2 away games and one home, I think that is generous me giving them maximum points there.

So onto the other 3. I can only see them getting 5 points from them. The 2 home games Doncaster and Forest I can see them drawing at least one there. I cannot see them winning at Newcastle but will be kind to them and say they will get a draw. That gives them 14 points from 18, pretty good going but it does mean they drop 4. So that basically means we now need 7 to reach the fplay offs.

Now if we draw our remaining 6 games then we will have a goal difference of 18. Therefore Blackpool need to win 2 of their winning games by 2 goals or more to match or better us. So they need to win at least 4 games of which 2 need to be by 2 goals. A tall order with 6 games to go. Therefore I feel the goal difference will favour us so only now needing 6 points for a play off spot.

The team below Blackpool are Doncaster. The maximum they can get is 73. To remind you 6 points will give us 71. So they need to drop 2 point somewhere. They play Blackpool away and West Brom at home. Just looking at those 2 fixtures I cannot see them getting full points. Lets say they draw at Blackpool, beat WBA and win all their other games that will give them an impressive 5 win 1 draw finsh but will it be enough to better their goal difference compared to us. At the moment that stands at 14 in our favour and I cannto see them overturning that with 5 wins. That would mean they would have ot win those games by 2 1/2 goals a game.

Next are Middlesborough and Sheff Utd who are a point behind Doncaster. Both teams can get a maximum of 72 therefore each needs to drop 1 point for us to qualify with winning 6 in the run in. Sheff Utd are away to Newcastle so I can see 2 points being dropped there. Middlesborough are away to West Brom and Leicester so I can see them clearly dropping a minimum of 2 points.

There is always a team that makes a late burst. This season people are talking about Reading doing that. So lets have a look at them. Now they have 8 games left and could finish on 76. Thats 5 points they need to drop to finish above us if we finish with 6 draws and that allowing for them to have a better goal diffenece which stands at 20 in our favour. They have Us away and Newcastle at home. We draw with them thats 2 points dropped. The Newcastle game I can see another draw therefore making it 4 points dropped. All their other games are winable but i cannot see them winning all 6 and one slip up and they wont finish above us.

So with those facts if seems to me the team with the biggest threat, Reading, Needs to win 6 and draw 2 from 8. Very tall order. Also this does not take into account the 2 teams still in a playoff spot the Jacks and Leicester. They play some of the teams I mention above and if they lose to them then they will have a tall order to finish above us. Of course they just might win against the chasing teams therefore making it a bit easier for us.

I've been delving into this all day what with BBC predictors and the like.

In the end I decided to wait until Monday might at 8pm before I tried to work it out again. I think that the next two games are vital and we just news to make sure we are not the team that bottles.

With four games to go it will be a hell of a lot clearer. I thought it was imperative to get 3 points yesterday so as to leave us in fourth whatever happens on Saturday and the next stage is to get at least 3 points from the next two games or 4 if Im greedy.

Then by the following Saturday we could be in a great position as Reading could be coming here with all guns blazing.

In my working outs I feel I have been quite harsh on us and generous to the chasing pack. I can see us getting 10 points in the run in. I cant see the other clubs getting what I have generously given them.

Indeed it will be clearer after Monday. Going on present form I am expecting us to open a gap over the likes of Leicester but can see one of the chasing pack closing on us perhaps Middlesborough.

What about Reading they got 2 games in hand on Blackpool and could go above them by a point.

saves me finishing the file i was compiling last night ian, cheers

What about Reading they got 2 games in hand on Blackpool and could go above them by a point.

Indeed and I concluded that they look the biggest threat. Even so if we are to get 6 points they will need 6 wins and 2 draws from 8 games to push us out. A tall order.

Ok I said we need 6 but that is down to 3 thanks to our win against the Jacks. These 3 points will give us 71 which I believe will be enough to see us in the play offs.

I think Cardiff can get 3rd on current form as Forest are wobbling coupled with some key injuries. If you win today it's pretty certain you will get 3rd providing you keep a run going. Leicester could drop out as they have not really had a bad run all season. I still think Blackpool are more a threat than Reading though. If Newcastle are the first promoted team in the division they may just ease off a little. Forest as I previously stated could lose and really feel the pressure after today and they would not fancy an in form Blackpool.
All that matters is finishing in the play offs for both our respected teams. Then it's a lottery, however 3rd spot appears to be jinxed in this division

I wish though it was just 1st 2nd 3rd that went up without playoffs. Saves a few grey hairs!

Is anyone else a little worried about finishing 3rd on our current run of form? As Bloo points out (amazingly! ), 3rd is a bit of a jinxed position. OK, we are hiting a great patch of form at the moment, but if we qualify for the play offs in the next 3-4 games, it could be that we take our foot of the gas. If we don't keep the good form going, then we could come a cropper against the 6th placed team, who could be coming through on a hot streak of form. Once you know you've got qualification in the bag, it's easy to sit back and admire your handiwork.

Personally, I think that we've got the players at the club to win the play offs and, with our first choice XI fit, 3rd place is a true reflection of how good we actually are.

Is anyone else a little worried about finishing 3rd on our current run of form? As Bloo points out (amazingly! ), 3rd is a bit of a jinxed position. OK, we are hiting a great patch of form at the moment, but if we qualify for the play offs in the next 3-4 games, it could be that we take our foot of the gas. If we don't keep the good form going, then we could come a cropper against the 6th placed team, who could be coming through on a hot streak of form. Once you know you've got qualification in the bag, it's easy to sit back and admire your handiwork.

Personally, I think that we've got the players at the club to win the play offs and, with our first choice XI fit, 3rd place is a true reflection of how good we actually are.

3rd position would be a great position for any club considering we have the like of Newcastle and WBA in this league. But the playoffs as we all know is a lottery. Who would have thought a season or two ago that little Yeovil would pip Nottingham Forest to reach the play off final? Or even Burnley last season?

Is anyone else a little worried about finishing 3rd on our current run of form? As Bloo points out (amazingly! ), 3rd is a bit of a jinxed position. OK, we are hiting a great patch of form at the moment, but if we qualify for the play offs in the next 3-4 games, it could be that we take our foot of the gas. If we don't keep the good form going, then we could come a cropper against the 6th placed team, who could be coming through on a hot streak of form. Once you know you've got qualification in the bag, it's easy to sit back and admire your handiwork.

Personally, I think that we've got the players at the club to win the play offs and, with our first choice XI fit, 3rd place is a true reflection of how good we actually are.

Got to change someday

Is anyone else a little worried about finishing 3rd on our current run of form? As Bloo points out (amazingly! ), 3rd is a bit of a jinxed position. OK, we are hiting a great patch of form at the moment, but if we qualify for the play offs in the next 3-4 games, it could be that we take our foot of the gas. If we don't keep the good form going, then we could come a cropper against the 6th placed team, who could be coming through on a hot streak of form. Once you know you've got qualification in the bag, it's easy to sit back and admire your handiwork.

Personally, I think that we've got the players at the club to win the play offs and, with our first choice XI fit, 3rd place is a true reflection of how good we actually are.

Got to change someday

This is true. Hope my post didn't come across as negative and I think we're more than capable of winning it with all our players fit

Is anyone else a little worried about finishing 3rd on our current run of form? As Bloo points out (amazingly! ), 3rd is a bit of a jinxed position. OK, we are hiting a great patch of form at the moment, but if we qualify for the play offs in the next 3-4 games, it could be that we take our foot of the gas. If we don't keep the good form going, then we could come a cropper against the 6th placed team, who could be coming through on a hot streak of form. Once you know you've got qualification in the bag, it's easy to sit back and admire your handiwork.

Personally, I think that we've got the players at the club to win the play offs and, with our first choice XI fit, 3rd place is a true reflection of how good we actually are.

3rd position would be a great position for any club considering we have the like of Newcastle and WBA in this league. But the playoffs as we all know is a lottery. Who would have thought a season or two ago that little Yeovil would pip Nottingham Forest to reach the play off final? Or even Burnley last season?

Exactly, and the whole 'it's a lottery' thing is what worries me

Next season the league could be a lot tougher as by the looks of things Pompey, Burnley and one from Hull, West Ham or Wigan would come down from the prem and possibly Norwich, Charlton, Leeds could go up. A lot of big fixtures and tough ones as well.
It will be interesting how newcastle fair in the premiership as they have bought a few players who I think who are not up to that level (Leon Best for example). Routledge will do well but will he get regular football?

Next season the league could be a lot tougher as by the looks of things Pompey, Burnley and one from Hull, West Ham or Wigan would come down from the prem and possibly Norwich, Charlton, Leeds could go up. A lot of big fixtures and tough ones as well.
It will be interesting how newcastle fair in the premiership as they have bought a few players who I think who are not up to that level (Leon Best for example). Routledge will do well but will he get regular football?

We say every season that it will be tougher though and I see no reason to expect next season to be any tougher than this. Pompey will have no money, so expect them to finish no higher than mid-table, Hull, seriously? And Wigan seriously? I can't see it myself. Sure they will be challenging, but look at the way Wigan concede. And I can't see Hull being able to attract the top names over us (if we don't make it up this season, of course) or any of the other credible promotion hopefuls. and most of the clubs that come down will have to sell their best players anyway. So don't expect to see the likes of Bullard, etc in the Championship next season. West Ham, if they come down, will be considered the big scalp and will find it tougher than Newcastle have this season.

Of the teams to come up, Leeds are blowing it big time, Norwich look certain to go up and there are about another 5 in the frame for promotion, so who knows but I see it being just as tough, rather than any tougher or less tough. Only my opinion though

It will be interesting how newcastle fair in the premiership as they have bought a few players who I think who are not up to that level (Leon Best for example). Routledge will do well but will he get regular football?

From what I can gather, I think Newcastle have bought players to get them out of the league rather than do that and establish themselves in the Premiership with those players. Routeledge can't cut it in the Premiership, Leon Best neither and I see a lot of comings and goings there in the summer.

Perhaps we can bring Routledge in to warm the bench as cover for Chris Burke?

Always been impressed with Routledge. When we beat QPR a few months back he cut us apart a good few times. i think he could do a job in the prem but not at Newcastle. Maybe a Bolton or Blackburn even. Didn't Newcastle prefer Leon Best over Jermaine Beckford and yet they paid more for Best?

I would love to see Leeds mess it up again. horrible team, and neanderthal fans. I'll never forget one bonehead telling us in his retarded northern drawl to 'fook off back to yer caves in aberfan'. Sick as well it seems. Someone should give then a history lesson then a damn good thrashing.

Always been impressed with Routledge. When we beat QPR a few months back he cut us apart a good few times. i think he could do a job in the prem but not at Newcastle. Maybe a Bolton or Blackburn even. Didn't Newcastle prefer Leon Best over Jermaine Beckford and yet they paid more for Best?

I would love to see Leeds mess it up again. horrible team, and neanderthal fans. I'll never forget one bonehead telling us in his retarded northern drawl to 'fook off back to yer caves in aberfan'. Sick as well it seems. Someone should give then a history lesson then a damn good thrashing.

Routledge seems a bit of a bottler to me. When things are going well, he looks great. But, from what I've heard from QPR fans, they weren't impressed with his attitude. He needs to be playing in a team doing well rather than trying to lift those around him. Like you say, Newcastle in the Premiership (as well as the Championship, probably) seems to be a bit of a goldfish bowl, and I don't think he'd like that to be honest.

As for Leeds fans, they should stick to pushing hot dog vans down terraces before slagging off other fans' behaviour. Pricks the lot of them. And, more than for their knob fans, I'd love Leeds to stay inthe obscurity they belong for one man only. Ken Bates, biggest wanker in football bar none

I think another 4 points will do it myself

A win today - and we'll be there!! IMO over 70pts will get you at least the last playoff place. I see alot of the upcoming fixtures to have some shockers in them....

I'd be happy taking a point today, and beating Reading just to make sure!

all depends on Blackpool i should imagine.

all depends on Blackpool i should imagine.

Don't rule out Reading. A tough game next week and they're coming through on a good run at the moment

Having done a few prediction tables with us going on an awful run, which I don't expect us to do, 71 points was always just not enough especially as there are no 6 pointers except for us (today and Saturday).

Everytime it was 72 points that saw us scrape into the play offs. So by my reckoning we need another 4 points.

I'm still sticking to 71 Wayne but obviuosly the more points the better.

One more point towardss that mark but unfortunately no one did us a favour. Blackpool and Reading got comfortable wins. Hopefully we can kill off Reading this weekend and hope Blackpool lose to the Geordies.