SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

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SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby Forever Blue » Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:47 pm

But My personal opinion is, If Cardiff City win 4 games from their last 6 games, they will stay up :thumbright: :thumbright: :bluebird: :bluebird:








Newcastle United, Southampton, Brighton or Burnley? The team most likely to be caught by Cardiff City



By Tom Coleman


Monday 8th April 2019


There were yet more twists in the battle for Premier League survival on Saturday


With only six games remaining, Cardiff City are facing an increasingly tough fight to preserve their Premier League status.

Huddersfield Town and Fulham have already surrendered their respective places in the top flight, and the Bluebirds are the favourites to join them in the Championship next season.

Results of over the weekend have left the Cardiff five points adrift of nearest rivals Southampton in the relegation zone, although there is still time for Neil Warnock's side to turn things around.

Here's how everyone's run-in compares - and Cardiff's chances of catching up each team in the mix.





18th - Cardiff City: 28 points

Fixtures: Burnley (A), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Manchester United (A)

Verdict: Neil Warnock has understandably described this latest run-in as 'six cup finals', but there are two games that immediately stand out.

The trips to relegation rivals Burnley and Brighton are likely to set the tone for the rest of the run-in. Win both of those, and Cardiff are firmly in the survival mix.

On the flipside, there's a very real fear that any kind of slip-up in those two games will prove fatal.


In fact, if they crash to defeat in those two games and results elsewhere go against them, they would need three points at home to title-chasing Liverpool in order to stave off relegation.

However, a favourable set of results elsewhere, combined with winning those two games, means City could well take on the Reds one point clear of the relegation zone.

Should they keep their hopes alive that long, the clashes with already-relegated Fulham and Crystal Palace (who will surely have confirmed safety by then), will be pivotal.

No one in the Welsh capital is likely to fancy a trip to Old Trafford to save their skin on the final day.









Southampton have a favourable run-in compared to their rivals

17th - Southampton: 33 points

Fixtures: Wolves (H), Newcastle (A), Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A), Huddersfield (H)

Verdict : Out of all the teams battling for their lives down the bottom, the Saints surely have the most favourable run-in.

Defeat to Liverpool on Friday night means they are by no means safe, but they will head into the final six games of the season knowing that they don't have any of the current top six to play.

Of all the fixtures, their home game with Wolves looks to be the toughest proposition, with all their other remaining games against teams in the bottom half.


You suspect that a win at relegation rivals Newcastle would be the most significant step towards safety, but they will surely fancy another three points before facing bottom-of-the-table Huddersfield on the final day.

Of course, there aren't any easy games in the Premier League, but many Bluebirds fans are likely to be pessimistic about their prospects of catching the Saints after looking at this run-in, although a couple of defeats could change everything.









16th - Brighton: 33 points

Fixtures: Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H)

Verdict: Following their run to the FA Cup semi-finals, Brighton have the luxury of a game in hand on Southampton and Cardiff, and two on Newcastle and Burnley.

Having given their survival hopes a boost with wins over Huddersfield and bitter rivals Crystal Palace, back-to-back defeats to Southampton and Chelsea mean Brighton are still in the relegation picture.

It's a tricky run of games for Chris Hughton's side, who still have tough trips to Wolves, Spurs and Arsenal to come, with Manchester City the visitors to the Amex on the final day.


The three home fixtures with Bournemouth, Cardiff and Newcastle could well go a long way to deciding their fate, and given their upcoming clashes with some of the league's big hitters, are likely to be their most likely source of points.

You sense the clash with the Bluebirds at the Amex on April 16 could well be a key game in deciding the fate of both teams, although Cardiff haven't won in Falmer in 14 years.

15th - Newcastle United: 35 points

Fixtures: Leicester (A), Southampton (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Fulham (A)

Verdict: A disappointing 1-0 defeat at home to Crystal Palace means the Magpies still have a bit of work to do if they are to confirm their place at English football's top table next season.

You get the feeling that one win is likely to be enough for Rafa Benitez's side, although it could get a little too close for comfort for the Toon Army.

Should Newcastle lose to in-form Leicester City on Friday night, Cardiff will head to Burnley seven points behind them with two games in hand, and could plausibly be one point behind the Magpies by the time they welcome Southampton at St James' Park.


The games with the Saints and Brighton are likely to be pivotal, and those on Tyneside will certainly feel uneasy if they see their side go into the game with Liverpool needing all three points, despite a record of just one home defeat to the Reds in the last 10 years.

Fulham on the final day is, on paper, a straightforward task, but it's been over a decade since a Newcastle side emerged from Craven Cottage with a win, so history suggests they could find it tough.










There could yet be an opportunity for Cardiff here.

Burnley's win over Bournemouth dealt a big blow to Cardiff's survival ambitions (Image: PA)
14th - Burnley: 36 points


Fixtures: Cardiff (H), Chelsea (A), Man City (H), Everton (A), Arsenal (H)

Verdict: Burnley's win over Bournemouth was certainly a blow to the Bluebirds, but looking at the Clarets' remaining games, it's clear there's still a long way to go before they can start planning for next season.

Cardiff still have a game in hand over Sean Dyche's men, and have a trip to Turf Moor to come on Saturday.

Should they win in Lancashire and then pick up another three points against Brighton in their game in hand, the gap between the two teams will be cut to just two points.

Clearly Burnley would still have an advantage, but out of all the teams at the bottom they have by far the most horrendous run-in, with trips to Chelsea and Everton to come, as well as home games with Manchester City and Arsenal.

They may well be sitting in 14th, but if Cardiff can muster a win on Saturday, they will feel they have every chance of catching them.






SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CATCH?

Staying up is going to take a monumental effort, but beating Burnley and Brighton would be a huge step in the right direction.

Burnley's run-in means Cardiff fans have to confident of there still being a few slip-ups from Dyche's side that can be capitalised upon and, despite their win at the weekend, catching the Clarets should still be the goal.

Meanwhile, given that Brighton's last four games are against three of the current top six, they could also be vulnerable to a Cardiff surge.

Similarly, Newcastle could also be made to sweat by Warnock's side. Defeat for the Magpies at Leicester on Friday is entirely plausible, and would open up the door for Cardiff to gain some substantial ground before the next weekend.

From a Cardiff point of view, the more teams that can be dragged into the picture the better, and luring Newcastle in will only further boost their hopes.

Then again, if City lose both of those two upcoming games, you strongly suspect it will be game over.

Meanwhile, despite being Cardiff's closest rivals for survival, you suspect Southampton are still likely to pick up points as part of their run-in, and many will fancy the Saints to pull away from the trapdoor.
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SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH?

Postby Forever Blue » Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:50 pm

:bluebird:


But My personal opinion is, If Cardiff City win 4 games from their last 6 games, they will stay up :thumbright: :thumbright: :bluebird: :bluebird:






April 13 — Burnley v Cardiff City

Tuesday April 16 - Brighton V Cardiff City

April 21 — Cardiff City v Liverpool

April 27 — Fulham v Cardiff City

Sat May 4 — Cardiff City v Crystal Palace live tv at 5:30pm

Sunday May 12 — Manchester United v Cardiff City 3pm
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby Steve Zodiak » Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:03 pm

With us currently averaging one win from every four games it would be a massive achievement if we were to win four from six. I live in hope, but I can't see it happening unfortunately. I have a feeling those decisions in the Chelsea game may have done for us. Be brilliant if we could pull this off, we beat the odds getting here in the first place, can we do it again?
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby Forever Blue » Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:15 pm

Steve Zodiak wrote:With us currently averaging one win from every four games it would be a massive achievement if we were to win four from six. I live in hope, but I can't see it happening unfortunately. I have a feeling those decisions in the Chelsea game may have done for us. Be brilliant if we could pull this off, we beat the odds getting here in the first place, can we do it again?


For me Steve, Win 4 games and we will stay up, if not then down we go, a lot to ask but not impossible :thumbright: :bluebird:
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby thomasblue » Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:50 pm

I think it all depends on Saturday

Beat Burnley and we have a great chance , lose or draw and it's all over.

I think 3 wins would definay do it as i cant see Burnley getting any more points. They will treat Saturday as a cup final. They win and they guarantee survival


I think we have 4 very winnable game and it wouldn't shock me if we won them all. We have done well against teams around us, Saturday either finishes the season or sets up a grand stand finish
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby banana bob » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:37 pm

Personally I think Brighton are the team for us to catch, thought they were very poor down here and if they don't beat Bournemouth on Saturday they will have a very tough run in and points will be difficult for them to pick up.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby banana bob » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:37 pm

Personally I think Brighton are the team for us to catch, thought they were very poor down here and if they don't beat Bournemouth on Saturday they will have a very tough run in and points will be difficult for them to pick up.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby banana bob » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:41 pm

thomasblue wrote:I think it all depends on Saturday

Beat Burnley and we have a great chance , lose or draw and it's all over.

I think 3 wins would definay do it as i cant see Burnley getting any more points. They will treat Saturday as a cup final. They win and they guarantee survival


I think we have 4 very winnable game and it wouldn't shock me if we won them all. We have done well against teams around us, Saturday either finishes the season or sets up a grand stand finish

If we lose Saturday and Brighton lose it will all come down to the game a week tomorrow, win that and I think we will have the momentum and stay up with Brighton going down.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby hagleyblue » Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:31 pm

Because Burnley don't need the win we'll have to force the issue in the game on Saturday. For most games in the Premier League we have relied on catching teams on the break so the game at Turf Moor will pose a new challenge for Neil Warnock.

We must make sure we remain patient and that our set pieces are at 100%, both attacking and defending. Anything less will be a long afternoon, especially as they have Barnes and Wood into double figures for the season.

I watched the highlights of the game against Bournemouth and they were very effective at getting the balls into the front two.
In addition, Tarkowski & Mee are a formidable pairing at the back.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby Forever Blue » Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:38 pm

thomasblue wrote:I think it all depends on Saturday

Beat Burnley and we have a great chance , lose or draw and it's all over.

I think 3 wins would definay do it as i cant see Burnley getting any more points. They will treat Saturday as a cup final. They win and they guarantee survival


I think we have 4 very winnable game and it wouldn't shock me if we won them all. We have done well against teams around us, Saturday either finishes the season or sets up a grand stand finish


Thomas, I agree beat Burnley and we are in with a good chance, draw or lose and it’s goodbye confidence will drop.

I stand by 4 wins needed.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby dogfound » Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:03 am

hagleyblue wrote:Because Burnley don't need the win we'll have to force the issue in the game on Saturday. For most games in the Premier League we have relied on catching teams on the break so the game at Turf Moor will pose a new challenge for Neil Warnock.

We must make sure we remain patient and that our set pieces are at 100%, both attacking and defending. Anything less will be a long afternoon, especially as they have Barnes and Wood into double figures for the season.

I watched the highlights of the game against Bournemouth and they were very effective at getting the balls into the front two.
In addition, Tarkowski & Mee are a formidable pairing at the back.



I think Burnley need to win or at least will be thinking that.
Everton and Chelsea away and Man City and Arsenal at home left after Saturday so id imagine it will be all out to get the points that will make them all but safe against us..
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby Crayfish » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:21 am

This is just lunacy. The fact of the matter is we have four our our remaining six fixtures away from home and we have the worst away record in the football league.If you add in the conference and conference south and north we have the worst away record in the top seven tiers of football. The notion that we are just going to win our next two or three away games is fantasy. That is why the bookies have us at between 1-10 and 1-14 on to be relegated. I can't actually remember the last time we won at Burnley away, do remember us beating Brighton away years ago. Probably have never won against both in the same season.

Given the levels of absurd fantasy optimism it would be best if Burnley put us out of our misery on Saturday. Even then people would start going on about how we could well pick up points against Liverpool and Man Utd.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby EastleighBlue » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:34 am

Crayfish wrote:This is just lunacy. The fact of the matter is we have four our our remaining six fixtures away from home and we have the worst away record in the football league.If you add in the conference and conference south and north we have the worst away record in the top seven tiers of football. The notion that we are just going to win our next two or three away games is fantasy. That is why the bookies have us at between 1-10 and 1-14 on to be relegated. I can't actually remember the last time we won at Burnley away, do remember us beating Brighton away years ago. Probably have never won against both in the same season.

Given the levels of absurd fantasy optimism it would be best if Burnley put us out of our misery on Saturday. Even then people would start going on about how we could well pick up points against Liverpool and Man Utd.


Generally I agree with you that we are all but relegated. However, I don't think its lunacy to think they can beat Burnley on Saturday. That is possible. If we do and results are favourable then there should be absolute belief in the squad that there is something very real to fight for. We need some fortune with other results though. If we lose then yes we absolutely have one foot in the Championship.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby piledriver64 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:38 am

Crayfish wrote:This is just lunacy. The fact of the matter is we have four our our remaining six fixtures away from home and we have the worst away record in the football league.If you add in the conference and conference south and north we have the worst away record in the top seven tiers of football. The notion that we are just going to win our next two or three away games is fantasy. That is why the bookies have us at between 1-10 and 1-14 on to be relegated. I can't actually remember the last time we won at Burnley away, do remember us beating Brighton away years ago. Probably have never won against both in the same season.

Given the levels of absurd fantasy optimism it would be best if Burnley put us out of our misery on Saturday. Even then people would start going on about how we could well pick up points against Liverpool and Man Utd.


Factually, of course, you're correct. But those stats are a bit misleading in that we now have 3 away games in a row against teams either just above or below us, whereas Burnley and Brighton (games against us aside) have some of their most difficult games to come.

I certainly wouldn't bet much on us staying up right now but the gap is slightly misleading so 2 wins or even 1 win and a draw in the next 2 games will make things very interesting.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby TheHangedMan » Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:22 pm

Crayfish wrote:This is just lunacy. The fact of the matter is we have four our our remaining six fixtures away from home and we have the worst away record in the football league.If you add in the conference and conference south and north we have the worst away record in the top seven tiers of football. The notion that we are just going to win our next two or three away games is fantasy. That is why the bookies have us at between 1-10 and 1-14 on to be relegated. I can't actually remember the last time we won at Burnley away, do remember us beating Brighton away years ago. Probably have never won against both in the same season.

Given the levels of absurd fantasy optimism it would be best if Burnley put us out of our misery on Saturday. Even then people would start going on about how we could well pick up points against Liverpool and Man Utd.

Why is it lunacy? That statement in itself is very harsh!

I think the majority on this board are realists. You are right to point out the improbabilty of the task ahead......but I bet you didn't have a tenner on Leicester to win the PL at 5000/1.

I will not stop believing in the improbbale, until it is a mathematic certainty of the likely outcome.
Not a shred of evidence exists in favour of the idea that life is serious........
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby dogfound » Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:56 pm

Crayfish wrote:This is just lunacy. The fact of the matter is we have four our our remaining six fixtures away from home and we have the worst away record in the football league.If you add in the conference and conference south and north we have the worst away record in the top seven tiers of football. The notion that we are just going to win our next two or three away games is fantasy. That is why the bookies have us at between 1-10 and 1-14 on to be relegated. I can't actually remember the last time we won at Burnley away, do remember us beating Brighton away years ago. Probably have never won against both in the same season.

Given the levels of absurd fantasy optimism it would be best if Burnley put us out of our misery on Saturday. Even then people would start going on about how we could well pick up points against Liverpool and Man Utd.



worse than Fulham Huddersfield and Wigan ?
besides as unlikely as it is. it can happen..
I remember going to Wimbledon needing a win along with defeats for Boro and Notts County....ok it did not happen but had it happened it would be right up there with my best moments watching Cardiff and I was far from being the only City fan there hoping either...football is all about hopes and dreams.


btw..Leicester 2014 15 season { the year before they won the title } with 6 games to go they were 18th and picked up 13 points in those 6 games … the first of those last 6 games was a 1 nil away win at Turf Moor against Burnley who went on to get relegated themselves...
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby 2blue2handle » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:04 pm

I would think to catch either Burnley or Brighton then we need to beat them, its a tough ask but strange things happen. I think the key is keeping the pressure on them, making them look over their shoulders.
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby hagleyblue » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:22 pm

dogfound wrote:btw..Leicester 2014 15 season { the year before they won the title } with 6 games to go they were 18th and picked up 13 points in those 6 games … the first of those last 6 games was a 1 nil away win at Turf Moor against Burnley who went on to get relegated themselves...


Unfortunately for us, Leicester were already on a good run and with six games to go were level on points with Hull in 17th, before they played Burnley who were rock bottom at the time.

The trouble is, I can't see Burnley losing all five matches they have left to play, especially as they look like they can take points off all the top clubs, with a single draw probably enough for them.

Out attention has to be Brighton who have Arsenal & Man City in the last two games.

If we are within two points of them at that stage it's very much game on. Such as shame that out GD is rubbish!
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Re: SO WHO COULD CARDIFF CITY CATCH? / " BUT "

Postby dogfound » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:54 pm

hagleyblue wrote:
dogfound wrote:btw..Leicester 2014 15 season { the year before they won the title } with 6 games to go they were 18th and picked up 13 points in those 6 games … the first of those last 6 games was a 1 nil away win at Turf Moor against Burnley who went on to get relegated themselves...


Unfortunately for us, Leicester were already on a good run and with six games to go were level on points with Hull in 17th, before they played Burnley who were rock bottom at the time.

The trouble is, I can't see Burnley losing all five matches they have left to play, especially as they look like they can take points off all the top clubs, with a single draw probably enough for them.

Out attention has to be Brighton who have Arsenal & Man City in the last two games.

If we are within two points of them at that stage it's very much game on. Such as shame that out GD is rubbish!



yes their good run had already started, but our overall form aint to shabby either..2 wins 1 loss and a loss to a ref and playing quite well.. I know its not an exact replica but my point was stranger things have happened so why not to ourselves..?????? its a mountain but clubs have climbed bigger mountains..
I certainly don't think having hope is lunacy..
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