All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

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All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Forever Blue » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:02 pm

All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS :thumbright:

There will be thousands who never even reported it and have come through it :thumbright:
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All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Sven » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:31 pm

This is all very true; sadly, the better news doesn't suit the negative, scaremongering media

Have to say that the people in these parts seem to (finally) be heeding the advice and staying at home for the majority of the time

As one of those 'key workers', I travel the short distance to my place of work each morning and I have to say the roads are quieter, not so many people walking around, shops quieter and no more congregation of groups (youngsters or otherwise)

Hopefully, the actions of the majority will see this horrid time pass more quickly and we can return to some kind of normal sooner rather than later :thumbright:
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby bluebirdoct1962 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:06 am

Sven wrote:This is all very true; sadly, the better news doesn't suit the negative, scaremongering media

Have to say that the people in these parts seem to (finally) be heeding the advice and staying at home for the majority of the time

As one of those 'jey workers', I travel the short distance to my place of work each morning and I have to say the roads are quieter, not so many people walking around, shops quieter and no more congregation of groups (youngsters or otherwise)

Hopefully, the actions of the majority will see this horrid time pass more quickly and we can return to some kind of normal sooner rather than later :thumbright:


Agree mate.
My mate said earlier to me ‘assuming the fixtures carry on, can you even begin to imagine what the atmosphere for the Leeds game will be like?’
Not priority atm obviously but it did make me think.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Sven » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:24 am

bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
Sven wrote:This is all very true; sadly, the better news doesn't suit the negative, scaremongering media

Have to say that the people in these parts seem to (finally) be heeding the advice and staying at home for the majority of the time

As one of those 'jey workers', I travel the short distance to my place of work each morning and I have to say the roads are quieter, not so many people walking around, shops quieter and no more congregation of groups (youngsters or otherwise)

Hopefully, the actions of the majority will see this horrid time pass more quickly and we can return to some kind of normal sooner rather than later :thumbright:


Agree mate.
My mate said earlier to me ‘assuming the fixtures carry on, can you even begin to imagine what the atmosphere for the Leeds game will be like?’
Not priority atm obviously but it did make me think.

Certainly not a current priority; but positive thinking about what lies ahead can be very therapeutic :thumbup:

Personally, I'll do what I can for the current dilemma and then concentrate on making up for any lost time with gusto and my usual positive enthusiasm :)
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Pennydarrenblue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:43 am

I’m confused as 468000 have had the bug but only 114000 recovered. What about the other 350000? Are the numbers fiddled and they died or is it the 350000 are still on going cases?

Just I thought/hoped a lot more would have survived.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:21 am

Pennydarrenblue wrote:I’m confused as 468000 have had the bug but only 114000 recovered. What about the other 350000? Are the numbers fiddled and they died or is it the 350000 are still on going cases?

Just I thought/hoped a lot more would have survived.


471,000 have had or currently have the virus.

136,000 of those cases have now had an outcome.

114,500 of those have recovered and 21,500 have died. Putting the current death rate of confirmed cases at 16%.

The rest of the initial figure are still ongoing cases.

****

The most concerning part for me is that the Chinese figure heavily dominates those overall figures and they are widely thought to be inaccurate which distorts the whole thing. Without China, the stats are pretty frightening.

390,000 cases
40,000 recoveries
18,000 deaths

So the death rate outside China for confirmed and concluded cases stands at 45%. :shock:
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:26 am

31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby oohahhPaulMillar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:01 am

Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby bluebirdoct1962 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:09 am

oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!

I had exactly the same mate and I’m sure many others have too.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:57 am

oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!


Most of those figures are accurate. One country was off by 1 in their official reporting and they had to clarify.

Maybe you mean they aren’t representing the full picture? As you are obviously correct in the fact that many people have the virus that we don’t know about, or have indeed had it without knowing. That’s without doubt true.

But for the cases we DO know about, this is the rate.

I do agree however that figures from the likes of China are not reliable, they recently threw out US journalists from the country as some were reporting it was far worse than being reported. China started this so they are obviously less forthcoming with their true figures, especially when their economy was crashing quicker than everyone else.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Bluebina » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:43 am

Fijiblue wrote:
oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!


Most of those figures are accurate. One country was off by 1 in their official reporting and they had to clarify.

Maybe you mean they aren’t representing the full picture? As you are obviously correct in the fact that many people have the virus that we don’t know about, or have indeed had it without knowing. That’s without doubt true.

But for the cases we DO know about, this is the rate.

I do agree however that figures from the likes of China are not reliable, they recently threw out US journalists from the country as some were reporting it was far worse than being reported. China started this so they are obviously less forthcoming with their true figures, especially when their economy was crashing quicker than everyone else.


I hope we will find that the vast majority of people get the virus with no issues, the figures you quoted are the small percentage that has noticeable reactions, of those a percentage will be fatal.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Forever Blue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:51 am

There will be thousands who never even reported it and have come through it :thumbright:
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:17 am

Bluebina wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:
oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!


Most of those figures are accurate. One country was off by 1 in their official reporting and they had to clarify.

Maybe you mean they aren’t representing the full picture? As you are obviously correct in the fact that many people have the virus that we don’t know about, or have indeed had it without knowing. That’s without doubt true.

But for the cases we DO know about, this is the rate.

I do agree however that figures from the likes of China are not reliable, they recently threw out US journalists from the country as some were reporting it was far worse than being reported. China started this so they are obviously less forthcoming with their true figures, especially when their economy was crashing quicker than everyone else.


I hope we will find that the vast majority of people get the virus with no issues, the figures you quoted are the small percentage that has noticeable reactions, of those a percentage will be fatal.


Correct, but we have no idea how many of those there are currently.

What we do know is that places like Italy and now Spain are getting 10,000+ reported cases per day and growing - and also reporting around 1,200 dead per day between them, and it is these cases which are the basis of the figures that are being reported.

The virus only started at the turn of the year so it’s clear that the vast majority of people have not yet had this infection and it will manifest itself into noticeable condition in an awful lot of people. Europe is currently showing us this.

Parc Y Scarlets it being sought out for a temporary morgue as they expect what is to come. My friends Dad has also been contacted about potentially using his business (refrigerated storage units) to house bodies should they need to.

The MoD have also built a 4000 bed temporary hospital in London ExCel centre with two morgues and they are then rolling those out in populated hotspots across the UK. I do feel people are making light of this and have absolutely no idea what is to come.

One of the guys working on the area released a video showing the inside, not sure if you have seen it:-

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C8AYnvufDBk
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby rumpo kid » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

America estimates 96,000,000 cases with 480,000 deaths..about .5%

Statistical representation using your method is never used for obvious reasons.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby dogfound » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:27 pm

oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!



confirmed cases...deaths...recoveries are all accurate ...how many cases not confirmed is anyones guess..

but deaths v recoveries is no method of calculating this percentage. ...I think the scaremonger knows that too...
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:30 pm

dogfound wrote:
oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!



confirmed cases...deaths...recoveries are all accurate ...how many cases not confirmed is anyones guess..

but deaths v recoveries is no method of calculating this percentage. ...I think the scaremonger knows that too...


Of course you do deaths vs recoveries. You cannot count a death vs all cases as most of those cases have not yet had an outcome. You also can’t do deaths vs a guess of how many may have it but not tested as that will be wrong before you start.

This is for confirmed cases only. Anything else would be a prediction and a guess based on nothing.

Happy to look at a better method than taking every single person we know to have it, and arriving at a figure of how many survive and how many die.

Of course there is a caveat that the actual figure may well be lower due to others having it and not reporting it who have recovered, I have said that many times. But we don’t know what that figure is. This is the figure for confirmed cases globally.

The death rate is readily available on every statistical website; it’s not my method, not me scaremongering - it is the method and it’s using deaths vs recoveries which is of course the best stats there is for that.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby bluesince62 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:08 am

OMG! Mr always right is back :roll: continually rolling out figures and stats fro around the Internet,,is there a subject he is not an expert in!! :old: :bluebird:
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby dogfound » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:37 am

Fijiblue wrote:
dogfound wrote:
oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!



confirmed cases...deaths...recoveries are all accurate ...how many cases not confirmed is anyones guess..

but deaths v recoveries is no method of calculating this percentage. ...I think the scaremonger knows that too...


Of course you do deaths vs recoveries. You cannot count a death vs all cases as most of those cases have not yet had an outcome. You also can’t do deaths vs a guess of how many may have it but not tested as that will be wrong before you start.

This is for confirmed cases only. Anything else would be a prediction and a guess based on nothing.

Happy to look at a better method than taking every single person we know to have it, and arriving at a figure of how many survive and how many die.

Of course there is a caveat that the actual figure may well be lower due to others having it and not reporting it who have recovered, I have said that many times. But we don’t know what that figure is. This is the figure for confirmed cases globally.

The death rate is readily available on every statistical website; it’s not my method, not me scaremongering - it is the method and it’s using deaths vs recoveries which is of course the best stats there is for that.



ill humour you, but im pretty sure you know and your deliberately scaremongering....
you and I are the first people to get CV.. the nxt day I die and you do not but your not fully recovered and will not be for maybe a month.... 1 death zero recoveries equals 100% death rate according to your calculations.... now that's rubbish, and most 4 year olds can figure that out..
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:44 am

dogfound wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:
dogfound wrote:
oohahhPaulMillar wrote:
Fijiblue wrote:31%*

Correction to above outside China death rate.


Truth is all these figures are wildly inaccurate. Would you trust any figures coming from places like China or Iran??

The number of people who have had the virus could be 10 maybe 20 times higher?? About 3 weeks ago I myself had a cough and felt ill and drained for a few days but felt fine since. Was that the virus?? Probably not but without being tested I will never know!!



confirmed cases...deaths...recoveries are all accurate ...how many cases not confirmed is anyones guess..

but deaths v recoveries is no method of calculating this percentage. ...I think the scaremonger knows that too...


Of course you do deaths vs recoveries. You cannot count a death vs all cases as most of those cases have not yet had an outcome. You also can’t do deaths vs a guess of how many may have it but not tested as that will be wrong before you start.

This is for confirmed cases only. Anything else would be a prediction and a guess based on nothing.

Happy to look at a better method than taking every single person we know to have it, and arriving at a figure of how many survive and how many die.

Of course there is a caveat that the actual figure may well be lower due to others having it and not reporting it who have recovered, I have said that many times. But we don’t know what that figure is. This is the figure for confirmed cases globally.

The death rate is readily available on every statistical website; it’s not my method, not me scaremongering - it is the method and it’s using deaths vs recoveries which is of course the best stats there is for that.



ill humour you, but im pretty sure you know and your deliberately scaremongering....
you and I are the first people to get CV.. the nxt day I die and you do not but your not fully recovered and will not be for maybe a month.... 1 death zero recoveries equals 100% death rate according to your calculations.... now that's rubbish, and most 4 year olds can figure that out..


Read back what you just typed.

That virus that you just gave an example of, at that time that you died would have a 100% death rate, yes. We would have absolutely no idea if I am going to recover or die, or even if the virus is recoverable at that point.

Once I do recover then we know that half of those confirmed to have it have died, and half survived. The death rate of that virus in confirmed cases would then be 50%. Although with a subject number of 2 - it’s not really something that can be said with any confidence that it is the larger rule.

The more cases and more subjects you have - the higher the degree of accuracy.

Currently we have 531,000 subjects.

148,000 outcomes from those 531,000 subjects.

Of those 148,000 outcomes we have 24,000 deaths and 124,000 recoveries. That’s 16% of confirmed cases resulting in death. Without the Chinese figures then that figure is 31%.

You would have a very solid point if your issue was that there are so many cases we do not know about which would undoubtedly bring that figure down, and I would agree. But I would also point out that we have no idea what that figure would be so it’s just guessing.

These figures represent the death rate of the confirmed cases that have had an outcome.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby rumpo kid » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:35 am

You’re figures are grossly so misleading, and your insistence so brainless, there’s little point in anyone replying.

I can only hope not too many impressionable people read this, and you should show some responsibility.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:47 am

rumpo kid wrote:You’re figures are grossly so misleading, and your insistence so brainless, there’s little point in anyone replying.

I can only hope not too many impressionable people read this, and you should show some responsibility.


What is misleading exactly? These aren’t MY figures, they are THE figures. What they represent is what they represent, that cannot be mislead, it’s just the facts. I am not interpreting them in my own way or drawing a conclusion that they do not show.

If we count every single person we know has the figure (over half a million) and look at the cases that have had an outcome, 16% of those result in death.

That is the facts, it isn’t misleading in the slightest. It is what it is and cannot be argued with.

You peddled a stat above about a 0.5% death rate, which is based on a guess based on nothing. How can you spout that sort of figure and then tell me the actual figures are misleading?

We all know that the figure is likely to be lower once we are able to count those that have not been confirmed to have it, but at this stage we do not know what that figure is.

I can only hope people don’t read your post and think that this disease is a 0.5% death rate type of illness because it clearly is not. Especially as you have not factored in health system capacities and what will happen once they are reached.

All the information you need is here, feel free to tell us why they are misleading everyone...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby rumpo kid » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:15 pm

No, I didn’t peddle a stat at all. As stated it’s an American estimate. The figure you’re indicating is the case fatality rate, and is usually known as a biased figure, being only a snapshot of a moment. Anyone presenting that figure at seminar would have rotten tomatoes thrown at them..

But hey, carry on mate, I couldn’t give a f**k. But you are misleading people unnecessarily. Don’t bother with any links, they’re incorrect way before you ever see them and consequently have no use.
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Re: All we ever hear is bad news they forget the GOOD NEWS

Postby Fijiblue » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:38 pm

rumpo kid wrote:No, I didn’t peddle a stat at all. As stated it’s an American estimate. The figure you’re indicating is the case fatality rate, and is usually known as a biased figure, being only a snapshot of a moment. Anyone presenting that figure at seminar would have rotten tomatoes thrown at them..

But hey, carry on mate, I couldn’t give a f**k. But you are misleading people unnecessarily. Don’t bother with any links, they’re incorrect way before you ever see them and consequently have no use.


Sounds like you have just realised you’re wrong then? Again happy for you to tell us all why these figures are misleading everyone. Again you are happy to peddle a 0.5% “American guess”, yet don’t want to accept actual factual data.

By the way, the death rate has climbed again to 17%. We have seen a steady rise from a solid 7% when in China to 17% as China essentially stopped giving their figures. I messaged Annis telling him exactly what would happen and it has happened to the letter so far. This will continue to rise until we hit around 35%.

Then when the testing kits get rolled out we will see a sharp drop in that rate, I believe to around 7-10% and it will settle there. The WHO estimate it to eventually end up at 5% although taking incubation periods into account it is likely more 7% (which isn’t far off where we are at tbh).

Fantasies of 0.5% are just that.. fantasies - and dangerous to try and tell people that as they will be far too complacent to the actual issue.

Do you know as well as Parc Y Scarlets, the Liberty is also being prepared to house bodies?
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