Cardiff City Forum



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It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:34 am

In Spain as a whole the death rate is going up and up yest 838 deaths and today so 546 :cry:


Thankfully where I live in the Balearic Islands , Mallorca, Ibiza,Minorca, Formentera etc it’s only 29 deaths between 5 Islands.

We have been in a proper lockdown now for 15days.

The heaviest lockdown starts tomorrow.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:40 am

Health chief says we must stay locked down until JUNE: UK could be made to remain at home for nearly three months to avoid worst effects of coronavirus and practice social distancing until October

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:51 am

Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:26 pm

Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


Not sure where you get those % from although nobody would dispute the gravity of the situation. Seems almost impossible to stop it spreading. If they cant on somewhere like the Faroe Island then what hope is there for the densely populated interconnected cities across the world. So delay until we get better equipment readily available and ventilators seem to be key to this.

What happened to the 10k Matt Hancock had bought last weekend, they no longer get referred to. Dyson cant get approval for his version but the other conglomerate will be in production this week. These are crucial in keeping the numbers down and people alive and to be honest we were very slow off the mark.

Trying to get feedback on the limited ventilator produced by the Ammanford firm. Fair play on the Welsh government getting on with this but we should start seeing some feedback on its effectiveness. If they achieve the aim of keeping the those with lesser breathing difficulties off main ventilators then that will surely save a lot of lives.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:26 pm

Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


And what the relation of 9/11??

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:33 pm

Pennydarrenblue wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


And what the relation of 9/11??


That’s obvious isn’t it? It’s a date that shocked the world and is remembered in recent memory for the sickening loss of life in the Western World.

So the fact that in recent weeks this other event shocking the world has seen almost 4 times the amount of deaths as that incident just in Italy alone; shows how unbelievably impactful this is... while there are many others treating it like a holiday.

But I’m sure you knew that.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:39 pm

epping blue wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


Not sure where you get those % from although nobody would dispute the gravity of the situation. Seems almost impossible to stop it spreading. If they cant on somewhere like the Faroe Island then what hope is there for the densely populated interconnected cities across the world. So delay until we get better equipment readily available and ventilators seem to be key to this.

What happened to the 10k Matt Hancock had bought last weekend, they no longer get referred to. Dyson cant get approval for his version but the other conglomerate will be in production this week. These are crucial in keeping the numbers down and people alive and to be honest we were very slow off the mark.

Trying to get feedback on the limited ventilator produced by the Ammanford firm. Fair play on the Welsh government getting on with this but we should start seeing some feedback on its effectiveness. If they achieve the aim of keeping the those with lesser breathing difficulties off main ventilators then that will surely save a lot of lives.


They are the official figures.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases are near the top, then at the bottom it is broken down by country.

Worldwide the closed cases have seen 146,000 recoveries and 32,000 deaths. That’s 18% of resulted cases have unfortunately resulted in the death of the patient.

The final status of the rest of the cases are currently unknown. But over the last 2 weeks this has climbed at about 1% per day to where it is today. I would imagine tomorrow it will be at 19% if trends are to continue.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:11 pm

Professor wrote:
epping blue wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


Not sure where you get those % from although nobody would dispute the gravity of the situation. Seems almost impossible to stop it spreading. If they cant on somewhere like the Faroe Island then what hope is there for the densely populated interconnected cities across the world. So delay until we get better equipment readily available and ventilators seem to be key to this.

What happened to the 10k Matt Hancock had bought last weekend, they no longer get referred to. Dyson cant get approval for his version but the other conglomerate will be in production this week. These are crucial in keeping the numbers down and people alive and to be honest we were very slow off the mark.

Trying to get feedback on the limited ventilator produced by the Ammanford firm. Fair play on the Welsh government getting on with this but we should start seeing some feedback on its effectiveness. If they achieve the aim of keeping the those with lesser breathing difficulties off main ventilators then that will surely save a lot of lives.


They are the official figures.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases are near the top, then at the bottom it is broken down by country.

Worldwide the closed cases have seen 146,000 recoveries and 32,000 deaths. That’s 18% of resulted cases have unfortunately resulted in the death of the patient.
The final status of the rest of the cases are currently unknown. But over the last 2 weeks this has climbed at about 1% per day to where it is today. I would imagine tomorrow it will be at 19% if trends are to continue.


Ah but that's a hugely misleading calculation. I would say the full recovery column on there is the least reliable figure they provide. For instance that calculation gives a death rate for the Netherlands of 99.6% and a number of countries haven't listed recoveries meaning they have a death rate of 100%. Take China out of the equation and your death rate doubles.

I wouldn't like to predict a death rate but in time there'll be all the stats. We'll know better how it spread, we'll have a better idea of the timing and effectiveness of the lockdowns. Sweden for instance have had no lockdown whatsoever and currently seem to be one of the better performing countries in Europe. Personally I think it'll come back and bite them hard.

General fitness of your population I think will play a big part as will lower smoking levels and of course the effectiveness of your health system and people to act together and responsibly.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:27 pm

Professor wrote:
Pennydarrenblue wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


And what the relation of 9/11??


That’s obvious isn’t it? It’s a date that shocked the world and is remembered in recent memory for the sickening loss of life in the Western World.

So the fact that in recent weeks this other event shocking the world has seen almost 4 times the amount of deaths as that incident just in Italy alone; shows how unbelievably impactful this is... while there are many others treating it like a holiday.

But I’m sure you knew that.


Not even comparable. 9/11 happened and killed most within a day. What a ridiculous comparison to be made.

I’ve not seen any other illness cancer, flu, heart disease etc compared to the 9/11 death rate.

Jesus Christ.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:58 pm

The 18% Death Stat is completely and utterly misleading.

We all know (and don’t pretend like you didn’t hear Boris say this) the confirmed cases is likely to be 10-20% of ACTUAL people who have the virus.

There’s only 600,000 cases confirmed when in actual fact there is 100% millions and millions that the governments haven’t tested for. Which would bring the death percentage down to about 3-5%, again, which is predominantly the old and already ill. Unfortunately it kills young heathy people too, but it’s less common.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:02 pm

Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


The death rate you are quoting is relation to 'closed cases' i.e those with an outcome.

If you look at those cases without an outcome then 95% of those infected have mild symptoms and would expect to recover whilst 5% have severe or critical symptoms.

Therefore it is unwise to state that nearly 1 in 5 of people infected with COVID-19 will die.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:42 pm

What's happening in the US and Canada?

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a formal advisory on Saturday, asking residents of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to "refrain from nonessential domestic travel for 14 days effective immediately".

There are at least 124,686 confirmed cases across the country, with 2,191 deaths. The United States overtook both China and Italy last week for number of reported cases.

On Sunday, top health official Dr Anthony Fauci estimated that 100,000 to 200,000 Americans would die due to the novel coronavirus, with "millions" of infections.

In Canada, there are 5,655 confirmed cases and 61 deaths.

Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, the wife of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, says she has received the "all clear" from her physician after testing positive for Covid-19 on 12 March.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:44 pm

Update from ITALY ...

Italy deaths continue unabated
Italy recorded 756 new deaths in the past 24 hours - bringing the total to 10,779.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:46 pm

I am due to go Santa Ponsa in early June and late July so looking like this won't happen then ?

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:00 pm

Davidspeers59 wrote:I am due to go Santa Ponsa in early June and late July so looking like this won't happen then ?


Would you honestly want to go ??

It's not going to just end

This will be on going for a year

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:44 pm

As the world tries desperately to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil's president Jair Bolsonaro is doing his best to downplay it.

Just days ago, he clearly demonstrated his prioritisation of the economy over isolation measures favoured by the rest of the world: "People are going to die, I'm sorry. "But we can't stop a car factory because there are traffic accidents."

And unlike fellow right-wing leader US President Donald Trump, there's little sign of an about-turn from Mr Bolsonaro - a politician who has always railed against the establishment.

But in these times of crisis, people don't want to listen to a blame-game. They need a problem to be solved - and fast.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:39 pm

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has laughed off the suggestion that his country should try to stem the spread of the coronavirus, because he can't see the virus "flying around".

Speaking to a TV reporter at an indoor ice hockey match, he also claimed that crowds at the match were fine because the coldness of the stadium would prevent the virus from spreading.

There is no evidence that this could be the case and the coronavirus cannot be seen with the naked eye.

Unlike most of Europe, Belarus has not placed any restrictions on sports events.

"There are no viruses here," Mr Lukashenko said. "You haven't seen them flying around, have you? I don't see them either! This is a fridge. Sport, particularly the ice, this fridge here, that's the best antiviral cure!"

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:44 pm

The Chinese blatantly lied. Lied about cases. Lied about deaths.

Look at what they do not what they say.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:45 pm

:thumbright:
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Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:18 pm

Tony Blue Williams wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


The death rate you are quoting is relation to 'closed cases' i.e those with an outcome.

If you look at those cases without an outcome then 95% of those infected have mild symptoms and would expect to recover whilst 5% have severe or critical symptoms.

Therefore it is unwise to state that nearly 1 in 5 of people infected with COVID-19 will die.


That’s what you have to do. Many people have mild cases at the start when it is reported, they then get infected in the lungs and find breathing difficult, this is when the virus becomes deadly.

Those stats have been going for 3 months. That critical figure has always hovered around the 5% mark yet the deaths to recoveries has steadily risen from 7% to 18% and still going strong.

I haven’t said that 1 in 5 people with COVID will die. I correctly stated that almost I in 5 people that have been confirmed to have COVID and the patient has had an outcome - has died. This is a number that is growing, not shrinking.

If as you say 95% of people have mild conditions then that death rate will be shrinking. We are yet to see it shrink for the last 3 months.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:30 pm

Pennydarrenblue wrote:
Not even comparable. 9/11 happened and killed most within a day. What a ridiculous comparison to be made.

I’ve not seen any other illness cancer, flu, heart disease etc compared to the 9/11 death rate.

Jesus Christ.


Use some common sense. It was not a comparison, it was a visual aid to realise the shocking loss of life. Cancer, the flu or heart disease haven’t been a threat to our way of life, the last time our way of life was under threat as a result of shocking loss of life was 9/11.

Use your head.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:36 pm

LeonSDC wrote:The 18% Death Stat is completely and utterly misleading.

We all know (and don’t pretend like you didn’t hear Boris say this) the confirmed cases is likely to be 10-20% of ACTUAL people who have the virus.

There’s only 600,000 cases confirmed when in actual fact there is 100% millions and millions that the governments haven’t tested for. Which would bring the death percentage down to about 3-5%, again, which is predominantly the old and already ill. Unfortunately it kills young heathy people too, but it’s less common.


It isn’t misleading. It’s only misleading if you don’t understand the stat.

The stat is relating to those CONFIRMED to have it and those that have had an outcome. Because of course if you haven’t had an outcome yet then we don’t know if they are recoveries or deaths.

So 18% of cases that have now been discharged from care (be that because they got better or died) - 185,000 cases is the figure... 18% of those have died.

534,000 cases currently outside of that figure of which we don’t know the outcome yet. But that death rate continues to rise.

Of course once you add in all the people that have had it and not reported it then that figure will sharply fall. My guess is to around 7-10%, that’s only a guess. But we don’t know how many those are. So these stats are simply based on those that have been confirmed to have it, they are not misleading in the slightest.

Data is data.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:42 pm

Tony Blue Williams wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


The death rate you are quoting is relation to 'closed cases' i.e those with an outcome.

If you look at those cases without an outcome then 95% of those infected have mild symptoms and would expect to recover whilst 5% have severe or critical symptoms.

Therefore it is unwise to state that nearly 1 in 5 of people infected with COVID-19 will die.



its not unwise. its deliberate scaremongering .

Re: It’s just getting worse

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:48 am

Professor wrote:
Pennydarrenblue wrote:
Not even comparable. 9/11 happened and killed most within a day. What a ridiculous comparison to be made.

I’ve not seen any other illness cancer, flu, heart disease etc compared to the 9/11 death rate.

Jesus Christ.


Use some common sense. It was not a comparison, it was a visual aid to realise the shocking loss of life. Cancer, the flu or heart disease haven’t been a threat to our way of life, the last time our way of life was under threat as a result of shocking loss of life was 9/11.

Use your head.


It’s incomparable my friend. End of.

Re: It’s just getting worse

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:38 am

Professor wrote:
LeonSDC wrote:The 18% Death Stat is completely and utterly misleading.

We all know (and don’t pretend like you didn’t hear Boris say this) the confirmed cases is likely to be 10-20% of ACTUAL people who have the virus.

There’s only 600,000 cases confirmed when in actual fact there is 100% millions and millions that the governments haven’t tested for. Which would bring the death percentage down to about 3-5%, again, which is predominantly the old and already ill. Unfortunately it kills young heathy people too, but it’s less common.


It isn’t misleading. It’s only misleading if you don’t understand the stat.

The stat is relating to those CONFIRMED to have it and those that have had an outcome. Because of course if you haven’t had an outcome yet then we don’t know if they are recoveries or deaths.

So 18% of cases that have now been discharged from care (be that because they got better or died) - 185,000 cases is the figure... 18% of those have died.

534,000 cases currently outside of that figure of which we don’t know the outcome yet. But that death rate continues to rise.

Of course once you add in all the people that have had it and not reported it then that figure will sharply fall. My guess is to around 7-10%, that’s only a guess. But we don’t know how many those are. So these stats are simply based on those that have been confirmed to have it, they are not misleading in the slightest.

Data is data.



when you add all those who have had it so mild that it wasn't even reported it will drop to between 7 and 10% ...unbelievable.
well you wont find a doctor, mathematician, scientist, health authority or politician anywhere in the 200 countries that have it that would agree with those figures..
and yes data is data. try using it..

Re: It’s just getting worse

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:25 am

Professor wrote:
Tony Blue Williams wrote:
Professor wrote:Death rate globally gradually increased from 7% to now 18% and rising.

Horrendous. Italy are now above 10,000 deaths alone.

That’s 3.5 times more than on 9/11


The death rate you are quoting is relation to 'closed cases' i.e those with an outcome.

If you look at those cases without an outcome then 95% of those infected have mild symptoms and would expect to recover whilst 5% have severe or critical symptoms.

Therefore it is unwise to state that nearly 1 in 5 of people infected with COVID-19 will die.


That’s what you have to do. Many people have mild cases at the start when it is reported, they then get infected in the lungs and find breathing difficult, this is when the virus becomes deadly.

Those stats have been going for 3 months. That critical figure has always hovered around the 5% mark yet the deaths to recoveries has steadily risen from 7% to 18% and still going strong.

I haven’t said that 1 in 5 people with COVID will die. I correctly stated that almost I in 5 people that have been confirmed to have COVID and the patient has had an outcome - has died. This is a number that is growing, not shrinking.

If as you say 95% of people have mild conditions then that death rate will be shrinking. We are yet to see it shrink for the last 3 months.



its growing yet you started with 45% then 31% now 18% :?

Re: It’s just getting worse

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:20 pm

NIBluebird wrote:
Davidspeers59 wrote:I am due to go Santa Ponsa in early June and late July so looking like this won't happen then ?


Would you honestly want to go ??

It's not going to just end

This will be on going for a year


Not at the moment looks like it will next year before I go, just hope this goes away soon, to be fair Easyjet have been very good with Refunds I was also supposed to be in Santa Ponsa last Thursday but the flight was cancelled and they gave me a full refund. :bluescarf: