The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup reve

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The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup reve

Postby Forever Blue » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:17 am

The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup revealed

Rob Page's men are looking to seal second spot in their World Cup qualifying group



By Ian Mitchelmore


Saturday 9th October 2021



Wales remain firmly in the mix to qualify for the 2022 World Cup following their draw with Czech Republic.

Rob Page's men took the lead at Sinobo Stadium through Aaron Ramsey's 18th international strike, although Jakub Pesek's effort along with a Danny Ward own goal saw the hosts go 2-1 up.

However, Daniel James struck midway through the second half to earn his side a share of the spoils which ensured the race for second place in Group E remains wide open.

Given that Wales are currently third, they, as things stand, would enter the play-offs via the Nations League.

This means they would be unseeded, which in turn would see them play away from home in the semi-final next year.

Of course, the situation can change dramatically from game to game, although this is how the seedings for the play-offs currently look.

Seeded: Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Scotland, Switzerland & Czech Republic.

Unseeded: Norway, North Macedonia, Albania, Ukraine, Wales & Austria.





Page was left understandably frustrated after his side spurned plenty of chances to take victory in Prague having done the same in the 0-0 draw with Estonia last month.

"We're frustrated because we should be sat here with six points from the last two games instead of two, we are disappointed with that," he said.

"Second spot is still our aim, and we've got three games left, the Czech Republic have got two.

"It's in our hands. We're already preparing for a big game on Monday, and we'll be fully prepared and ready for it."

We Global Football have calculated that Wales are 68.7% likely to play away in the play-off semi-finals while their hopes of being at home for that one off fixture are just 31.3%.

And, according to their simulations, Wales are 100% certainties to reach the play-offs, which makes perfect sense given that they're well within a shout of taking second spot, and, even if they don't, they'll gain a play-off place via the Nations League given that France, Belgium, Italy and Spain are all set to qualify for the tournament in Qatar automatically.

Using various formulas and calculations, they believe Wales have a 19.9% chance of being involved in next year's World Cup.

There could yet be plenty more twists and turns, although after an enthralling draw in Prague, Wales know their destiny remains firmly in their own hands.

Wales return to action against Estonia in Tallinn on Monday night.
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The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup reve

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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:22 am

Also if wales and chezcs are level 2nd at end of qualifying group Wales will be ahead of them due to us winning at home against them... 1st criteria used is head to head results :thumbup:
I thought it was top 6 2nd place teams going by amount of points won that are seeded
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby bluebirdoct1962 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:06 am

Does anyone have remaining fixtures left in the group? Cheers in advance
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:21 am

bluebirdoct1962 wrote:Does anyone have remaining fixtures left in the group? Cheers in advance



Estonia on mon belarus 13th nov belgium 16th nov
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby Leon1927 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:23 am

Also the teams that finish second with a group of 6 won’t have their points counted that they earned against the bottom side, due to fairness.
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby JJ1927 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:48 am

pembroke allan wrote:Also if wales and chezcs are level 2nd at end of qualifying group Wales will be ahead of them due to us winning at home against them... 1st criteria used is head to head results :thumbup:
I thought it was top 6 2nd place teams going by amount of points won that are seeded

Is that definitely correct that the first criteria is head to head? I hope so. We were arguing this last night because we are being shown as in third place at the moment. Or do they only adjust at the end?
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:16 pm

JJ1927 wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:Also if wales and chezcs are level 2nd at end of qualifying group Wales will be ahead of them due to us winning at home against them... 1st criteria used is head to head results :thumbup:
I thought it was top 6 2nd place teams going by amount of points won that are seeded

Is that definitely correct that the first criteria is head to head? I hope so. We were arguing this last night because we are being shown as in third place at the moment. Or do they only adjust at the end?


Sure it is as put out a chart much earlier in campaign... but took another look and tbh its not very clear like all things UEFA ? But head to head does come into equation somewhere along the line that's for certain .. at moment they've got +1 while we are +0 so presume that's why ahead at moment but think it's at end when it comes into play so chechs be in front plus c comes before w for now..
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby bluebirdoct1962 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:42 pm

pembroke allan wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:Does anyone have remaining fixtures left in the group? Cheers in advance



Estonia on mon belarus 13th nov belgium 16th nov

Sorry Al, should have been clearer. I meant CR remaining games.
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:14 pm

bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:Does anyone have remaining fixtures left in the group? Cheers in advance



Estonia on mon belarus 13th nov belgium 16th nov

Sorry Al, should have been clearer. I meant CR remaining games.



Estonia Belarus
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby bluebirdoct1962 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:44 pm

pembroke allan wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:Does anyone have remaining fixtures left in the group? Cheers in advance



Estonia on mon belarus 13th nov belgium 16th nov

Sorry Al, should have been clearer. I meant CR remaining games.



Estonia Belarus

Typical :roll:
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby JJ1927 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:26 pm

pembroke allan wrote:
JJ1927 wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:Also if wales and chezcs are level 2nd at end of qualifying group Wales will be ahead of them due to us winning at home against them... 1st criteria used is head to head results :thumbup:
I thought it was top 6 2nd place teams going by amount of points won that are seeded

Is that definitely correct that the first criteria is head to head? I hope so. We were arguing this last night because we are being shown as in third place at the moment. Or do they only adjust at the end?


Sure it is as put out a chart much earlier in campaign... but took another look and tbh its not very clear like all things UEFA ? But head to head does come into equation somewhere along the line that's for certain .. at moment they've got +1 while we are +0 so presume that's why ahead at moment but think it's at end when it comes into play so chechs be in front plus c comes before w for now..

Cant find anything official but I just read an old- 2019 -article which seems to indicate that World Cup qualifiers are on goal difference. It probably doesn't make any difference anyway as to qualify as a best runner up we will probably need at least another seven points which takes puts us second whatever the Czechs do.
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:27 pm

bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:Does anyone have remaining fixtures left in the group? Cheers in advance



Estonia on mon belarus 13th nov belgium 16th nov

Sorry Al, should have been clearer. I meant CR remaining games.



Estonia Belarus

Typical :roll:



Yes but we have same + Belgium tried to find out what happens if same points at end of qualifying and hit brick wall ..... at moment they got 1 goal more than us so the debacle yesterday and Estonia can have really deprement to our qualification not finishing 2nd we will have to play away in playoffs until final when its luck of the draw.
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby Wayne S » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:12 pm

FIFA World Cup Qualifying Regulations.
Article 20.6

In the league format, the ranking in each group is determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned;

It goes on but d) above will give us the edge if it gets that far.

I think it's safe to say we need to pump in some goals before the Belgium game.
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby BC-CB » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:35 pm

It all looks like coming down to Wales v Belgium again and they will not be looking forward to that. We have proved we can beat them and their "golden generation" still haven't won anything with chances reducing with each competition. Perhaps they are feeling the pressure despite their undoubted ability?
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:36 pm

Wayne S wrote:FIFA World Cup Qualifying Regulations.
Article 20.6

In the league format, the ranking in each group is determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned;

It goes on but d) above will give us the edge if it gets that far.

I think it's safe to say we need to pump in some goals before the Belgium game.



Thanks I got it wrong then except the part where points total determine ranking for home game in playoffs ... home advantage is massive for any team .. we need to better the results in games against Estonia and Belarus compared to chechs... yes Belgium is going to be critical if we are level with chechs going into that game we may need to avoid defeat by only couple of goals which may be hard considering they have already qualified so no pressure on them to play safe.... last two games have screwed up our chances to have home advantage in playoffs
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby Pencoed » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:54 am

More than likely that Belgium will have topped the group prior to the last game so could play some of the fridge players
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Re: The likelihood of Wales now reaching the 2022 World Cup

Postby pembroke allan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:24 am

Pencoed wrote:More than likely that Belgium will have topped the group prior to the last game so could play some of the fridge players


We just need to do what Belgium did to our next two opponents score about goals no problem then.. but the odds are 19% to get to quatar ..
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