Wales second or third doesn’t matter

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Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:39 am

Looking at the other groups it’s likely we will not be in the top 6 points totals therefore we will be away in first play off game.

Only Croatia currently second I would actually be worried about.
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Wales second or third doesn’t matter

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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby 1980s Bluebird » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:50 am

Is it a two legged play off, sure I heard it mention that its a one game play off? After our 0-0 v Estonia we are capable just as much to f**k it up as win so any team is dangerous.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby Abergavenny » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:55 am

i thought it was only one game and not a home and away format Wales get a home game if 2nd
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:17 am

Abergavenny wrote:i thought it was only one game and not a home and away format Wales get a home game if 2nd


Yeah sky kept saying that last night. They were wrong.

12 teams go through to playoffs.

10 teams who finish second in their groups and 2 from the Nations League. We are currently the highest ranked team not top or second in their groups so will get in via one of those last two slots.

Those 12 teams will play off with the 6 best performing group teams playing at home. Currently we have 11 points from 6 games and can get to 17. However one of those games is v Belgium.

The 6 winners will play another ‘final’ which is drawn randomly and then the winners of the last 3 games join the 10 group winners qualifying for the World Cup.

The other teams in the hunt are; (some groups top and second are undecided)

Serbia 14 points from 6 games.
Portugal 13 from 5.
Sweden 12 from 5.
Spain 13 from 6.
Italy 14 from 6.
Switzerland 11 from 5.
Ukraine 8 from 6.
Bosnia 6 from 5.
Scotland 14 from 7.
Norway 17 from 8.
Turkey 15 from 8.
Romania 13 from 8.
Russia 19 from 8.
Croatia 17 from 8.
Albania 15 from 7.

The teams from Scotland down are in larger groups so lose the points gained against the team that finish 6th.

We need 6 points to have a chance of a home game I think. Even that might not be enough. The home game v Estonia may cost us.

But as I said not many teams to fear there.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby pembroke allan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:42 am

1980s Bluebird wrote:Is it a two legged play off, sure I heard it mention that its a one game play off? After our 0-0 v Estonia we are capable just as much to f**k it up as win so any team is dangerous.



Did table after last group of games with permutations of how many points teams can get and said then looked dodgy with the points we could get.... but way we are playing be hard who ever we play
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:54 am

pembroke allan wrote:
1980s Bluebird wrote:Is it a two legged play off, sure I heard it mention that its a one game play off? After our 0-0 v Estonia we are capable just as much to f**k it up as win so any team is dangerous.



Did table after last group of games with permutations of how many points teams can get and said then looked dodgy with the points we could get.... but way we are playing be hard who ever we play


Although against Czech Republic we looked good.

Maybe we raise our game depending on opposition?
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby pembroke allan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:49 am

maccydee wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
1980s Bluebird wrote:Is it a two legged play off, sure I heard it mention that its a one game play off? After our 0-0 v Estonia we are capable just as much to f**k it up as win so any team is dangerous.



Did table after last group of games with permutations of how many points teams can get and said then looked dodgy with the points we could get.... but way we are playing be hard who ever we play


Although against Czech Republic we looked good.

Maybe we raise our game depending on opposition?




Yes seems we do judging by our results in this group even though lost to Belgium we did score 1st... but when it mattered we were found wanting and tbh it was the tactics that failed us particularly Estonia at home where we had 1 shot 1st half ! Yesterday was extremely poor performance 2nd half and lucky to get away with win! One saving grace is in playoffs teams generally are of same level and just need bale and Rambo fit for the playoffs
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:56 am

pembroke allan wrote:
maccydee wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
1980s Bluebird wrote:Is it a two legged play off, sure I heard it mention that its a one game play off? After our 0-0 v Estonia we are capable just as much to f**k it up as win so any team is dangerous.



Did table after last group of games with permutations of how many points teams can get and said then looked dodgy with the points we could get.... but way we are playing be hard who ever we play


Although against Czech Republic we looked good.

Maybe we raise our game depending on opposition?




Yes seems we do judging by our results in this group even though lost to Belgium we did score 1st... but when it mattered we were found wanting and tbh it was the tactics that failed us particularly Estonia at home where we had 1 shot 1st half ! Yesterday was extremely poor performance 2nd half and lucky to get away with win! One saving grace is in playoffs teams generally are of same level and just need bale and Rambo fit for the playoffs


List above only Italy and Croatia I would be worried about and likely they will finish top. Maybe Sweden might be difficult.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby JJ1927 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:18 pm

maccydee wrote:
Abergavenny wrote:i thought it was only one game and not a home and away format Wales get a home game if 2nd


Yeah sky kept saying that last night. They were wrong.

12 teams go through to playoffs.

10 teams who finish second in their groups and 2 from the Nations League. We are currently the highest ranked team not top or second in their groups so will get in via one of those last two slots.

Those 12 teams will play off with the 6 best performing group teams playing at home. Currently we have 11 points from 6 games and can get to 17. However one of those games is v Belgium.

The 6 winners will play another ‘final’ which is drawn randomly and then the winners of the last 3 games join the 10 group winners qualifying for the World Cup.

The other teams in the hunt are; (some groups top and second are undecided)

Serbia 14 points from 6 games.
Portugal 13 from 5.
Sweden 12 from 5.
Spain 13 from 6.
Italy 14 from 6.
Switzerland 11 from 5.
Ukraine 8 from 6.
Bosnia 6 from 5.
Scotland 14 from 7.
Norway 17 from 8.
Turkey 15 from 8.
Romania 13 from 8.
Russia 19 from 8.
Croatia 17 from 8.
Albania 15 from 7.

The teams from Scotland down are in larger groups so lose the points gained against the team that finish 6th.

We need 6 points to have a chance of a home game I think. Even that might not be enough. The home game v Estonia may cost us.

But as I said not many teams to fear there.

Agree with you that its unlikely we will get a best runner up spot even if we finish second and II got fed up last night with commentators going on about a runner up spot giving us a home tie and the importance of goal difference with the Czecs. Goal difference is likely to be is irrelevant, because unless we get 4 points at least we are very unlikely to be a best runner up. But don't forget that those teams who are in a group with six teams-we only have five- lose the points they have from playing the bottom team in their group. This is likely to be six points deducted in most cases. I think a win and a draw may do it and two wins will do it. Trouble is one of them is Belgium!!!
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:26 pm

JJ1927 wrote:
maccydee wrote:
Abergavenny wrote:i thought it was only one game and not a home and away format Wales get a home game if 2nd


Yeah sky kept saying that last night. They were wrong.

12 teams go through to playoffs.

10 teams who finish second in their groups and 2 from the Nations League. We are currently the highest ranked team not top or second in their groups so will get in via one of those last two slots.

Those 12 teams will play off with the 6 best performing group teams playing at home. Currently we have 11 points from 6 games and can get to 17. However one of those games is v Belgium.

The 6 winners will play another ‘final’ which is drawn randomly and then the winners of the last 3 games join the 10 group winners qualifying for the World Cup.



The other teams in the hunt are; (some groups top and second are undecided)

Serbia 14 points from 6 games.
Portugal 13 from 5.
Sweden 12 from 5.
Spain 13 from 6.
Italy 14 from 6.
Switzerland 11 from 5.
Ukraine 8 from 6.
Bosnia 6 from 5.
Scotland 14 from 7.
Norway 17 from 8.
Turkey 15 from 8.
Romania 13 from 8.
Russia 19 from 8.
Croatia 17 from 8.
Albania 15 from 7.

The teams from Scotland down are in larger groups so lose the points gained against the team that finish 6th.

We need 6 points to have a chance of a home game I think. Even that might not be enough. The home game v Estonia may cost us.

But as I said not many teams to fear there.

Agree with you that its unlikely we will get a best runner up spot even if we finish second and II got fed up last night with commentators going on about a runner up spot giving us a home tie and the importance of goal difference with the Czecs. Goal difference is likely to be is irrelevant, because unless we get 4 points at least we are very unlikely to be a best runner up. But don't forget that those teams who are in a group with six teams-we only have five- lose the points they have from playing the bottom team in their group. This is likely to be six points deducted in most cases. I think a win and a draw may do it and two wins will do it. Trouble is one of them is Belgium!!!


Don’t think four will be enough. Lots of teams already more points than us although I’m not sure who the teams left have to play.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby Pencoed » Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:59 pm

I think an away game to one of the stronger sides in the draw may suit us more than a home tie we're expected to win.
The curial factor will be how many of are top players are fit and available at the time
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby JJ1927 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:08 pm

maccydee wrote:
JJ1927 wrote:
maccydee wrote:
Abergavenny wrote:i thought it was only one game and not a home and away format Wales get a home game if 2nd


Yeah sky kept saying that last night. They were wrong.

12 teams go through to playoffs.

10 teams who finish second in their groups and 2 from the Nations League. We are currently the highest ranked team not top or second in their groups so will get in via one of those last two slots.

Those 12 teams will play off with the 6 best performing group teams playing at home. Currently we have 11 points from 6 games and can get to 17. However one of those games is v Belgium.

The 6 winners will play another ‘final’ which is drawn randomly and then the winners of the last 3 games join the 10 group winners qualifying for the World Cup.



The other teams in the hunt are; (some groups top and second are undecided)

Serbia 14 points from 6 games.
Portugal 13 from 5.
Sweden 12 from 5.
Spain 13 from 6.
Italy 14 from 6.
Switzerland 11 from 5.
Ukraine 8 from 6.
Bosnia 6 from 5.
Scotland 14 from 7.
Norway 17 from 8.
Turkey 15 from 8.
Romania 13 from 8.
Russia 19 from 8.
Croatia 17 from 8.
Albania 15 from 7.

The teams from Scotland down are in larger groups so lose the points gained against the team that finish 6th.

We need 6 points to have a chance of a home game I think. Even that might not be enough. The home game v Estonia may cost us.

But as I said not many teams to fear there.

Agree with you that its unlikely we will get a best runner up spot even if we finish second and II got fed up last night with commentators going on about a runner up spot giving us a home tie and the importance of goal difference with the Czecs. Goal difference is likely to be is irrelevant, because unless we get 4 points at least we are very unlikely to be a best runner up. But don't forget that those teams who are in a group with six teams-we only have five- lose the points they have from playing the bottom team in their group. This is likely to be six points deducted in most cases. I think a win and a draw may do it and two wins will do it. Trouble is one of them is Belgium!!!


Don’t think four will be enough. Lots of teams already more points than us although I’m not sure who the teams left have to play.

We need to be in top six so we need to better 4 of them. Of the nine other groups France's group is the most likely to have less than us. Of the rest five of the group have six teams in it. In that case the second places will lose up to six points each as the results against the bottom team drops out. Take that away and the picture looks a lot different. As you point out it very much depends upon who the teams are playing but three of those five look catchable if we get 4 points if you knock of six points.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:21 pm

Remaining fixtures.

Group A
Serbia - Azerbaijan home Portugal away
Portugal - Luxembourg home Ireland away Serbia home

Group B
Sweden - Greece home Georgia away Spain away
Spain - Greece away Sweden home

Group C
Italy - Switzerland home N Ireland away
Switzerland - Lithuania away Italy away Bulgaria home

Group D
Ukraine - Bosnia home Bosnia away
Bosnia - Ukraine away Finland home Ukraine home
Finland - Bosnia away France home

Group F
Scotland - Faroes away Moldova away Denmark home

Group G
Norway - Latvia home Netherlands away
Turkey - Gibraltar home Montenegro away

Group J
Romania - Iceland home Liechtenstein away

Group H
Russia - Cyprus home Croatia away
Croatia - Malta away Russia home

Group I
Albania - Poland home Andorra home
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:18 pm

Looking at results from tonight and games left I think the following teams will be one of the best runners up.

Serbia
Sweden
Switzerland
Croatia / Russia
Poland

Then it gets interesting and could come down to goal difference

I think Scotland will end up on 14 points (after 6 points taken off them from bottom team)
I think Turkey could end up on 15 points (Montenegro away last game though) otherwise Norway will end up on 14 points

Teams in the following groups are out of the running

Ukraine / Finland
Romania / North Macedonia

So i think two wins will definitely be enough. A win v Belarus and a draw v Belgium might be enough. Anything less probably won’t be. We are probably very much going to bemoan those missed points v Estonia.

Looking at the teams above I would prefer away from home

Scotland (most)
Russia
Turkey
Serbia
Switzerland
Sweden
Poland
Croatia
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby epping blue » Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:46 am

2nd or third matters enormously. Granted it's unlikely we'll finish above the Czech's on 14 points. That would take us beating Belarus by 5 , losing to Belgium by a goal and the Czechs beating Estonia by no more than a goal. But when we beat Belarus its completely in our hands. A draw against Belgium and we'll probably do it, a win and we definitely do it.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby maccydee » Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:22 pm

epping blue wrote:2nd or third matters enormously. Granted it's unlikely we'll finish above the Czech's on 14 points. That would take us beating Belarus by 5 , losing to Belgium by a goal and the Czechs beating Estonia by no more than a goal. But when we beat Belarus its completely in our hands. A draw against Belgium and we'll probably do it, a win and we definitely do it.


Yep you are right if we win both games.

I don’t think 4 points will quite be enough.

3 points with being above Czechs on GD would be the same as us finishing third.
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Re: Wales second or third doesn’t matter

Postby epping blue » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:57 pm

maccydee wrote:
epping blue wrote:2nd or third matters enormously. Granted it's unlikely we'll finish above the Czech's on 14 points. That would take us beating Belarus by 5 , losing to Belgium by a goal and the Czechs beating Estonia by no more than a goal. But when we beat Belarus its completely in our hands. A draw against Belgium and we'll probably do it, a win and we definitely do it.


Yep you are right if we win both games.

I don’t think 4 points will quite be enough.

3 points with being above Czechs on GD would be the same as us finishing third.




Doesn't seem to matter now, having just read the terrible news on David Brookes. Get well soon Dave, you can beat it.
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