4 points clear of relegation : Just for analytic fun and di

February 2025:



CARDIFF CITY:


4 points clear of relegation :

Just for analytic fun and discussion -

I have divided our remaining games into February , March and April (+last game) .

My present conclusion is that by end Feb we must be 8 points clear ….otherwise we should be concerned .


In Feb we play 4 games Portsmouth , Bristol C , Plymouth and Hull …..three of those are serious relegation candidates . I hope that we can pick up points here and be 8 points clear of relegation .






This is so because we have a very hard March where we play 5 games Burnley , Sunderland , Luton , Blackburn and Sheffield Wed ….. 3 of those are serious promotion candidates … I expect us to be dropping points here …..and back to not far from the drop zone .







April is a mixed bag of teams ….so perhaps not much change here:


05/04/2025 - 15:00 - Queens Park Rangers (a)

08/04/2025 - 19:45 - Preston North End (a)

12/04/2025 - 15:00 - Stoke City (h)

18/04/2025 - 15:00 -Sheffield United (a)

21/04/2025 - 15:00 - Oxford United (h)

26/04/2025 -15:00 - West Bromwich Albion (h)

03/05/2025 -15:00 -Norwich City (a)




Conclusion : In February we must pull away further from relegation ….otherwise we should start to really worry .

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Good summary. HUGE month ahead for us. January gave us a fighting chance; now it's time to see if we're a championship side or not.

I was thinking about what points total we need to be safe and it feels like 48 would probably do it.. that is 5 wins and 2 draws from 16 games

Good summary. HUGE month ahead for us. January gave us a fighting chance; now it's time to see if we're a championship side or not.

On paper March is really tough . We must do the business in the next 4 games of February . The first is 11th Feb (Portsmouth) ….the last is 26th Feb . (Hull) . 12 critical February days !!!

February 2025:



CARDIFF CITY:


4 points clear of relegation :

Just for analytic fun and discussion -

I have divided our remaining games into February , March and April (+last game) .

My present conclusion is that by end Feb we must be 8 points clear ….otherwise we should be concerned .


In Feb we play 4 games Portsmouth , Bristol C , Plymouth and Hull …..three of those are serious relegation candidates . I hope that we can pick up points here and be 8 points clear of relegation .






This is so because we have a very hard March where we play 5 games Burnley , Sunderland , Luton , Blackburn and Sheffield Wed ….. 3 of those are serious promotion candidates … I expect us to be dropping points here …..and back to not far from the drop zone .







April is a mixed bag of teams ….so perhaps not much change here:


05/04/2025 - 15:00 - Queens Park Rangers (a)

08/04/2025 - 19:45 - Preston North End (a)

12/04/2025 - 15:00 - Stoke City (h)

18/04/2025 - 15:00 -Sheffield United (a)

21/04/2025 - 15:00 - Oxford United (h)

26/04/2025 -15:00 - West Bromwich Albion (h)

03/05/2025 -15:00 -Norwich City (a)




Conclusion : In February we must pull away further from relegation ….otherwise we should start to really worry .

I agree Annis, It's fine losing to Leeds, Bunley and top teams but we have to pick up most of the points against bottom half teams to have any chance of pulling away from the relegation zone, especially the bottom eight. February will be our make or break month I think, and it hasn't started well!

Last edited by Bluebina on Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

We probably need 5 or 6 more wins to be safe.
Winning the next four would definitely help.

I said after the game Luton away if riza
Gets the full time managers job we will be relegated I’m going to stick by that because of his inexperience I hope I’m wrong and I’ll be first to say it if we survive

Good truthful analysis . We are in a relegation battle but if we do the buisness in the games you mention we hopefully will stay up .

We have to avoid defeat at worse this month.

March is horrific and the pressure will be on. If we can get some results there we give ourselves a reasonable chance of staying up.

Annis, that's a good way to split the games up, so i've got us taking another 19 points which puts us bang on 50 points. If this was the case will 50 be enough to keep us up this season ?? It should be.

I was thinking about what points total we need to be safe and it feels like 48 would probably do it.. that is 5 wins and 2 draws from 16 games

I think we need more - 50? There's no one cut adrift and some of the teams in the relegation zone are unexpected whilst teams like Oxford who I thought would be there are pretty safe.

Last season I think 53 points was the cut off to stay up. This isn't going to be easy.

Either way, we'll find out soon enough whether we have enough quality to retain our Championship status.

Last season I think 53 points was the cut off to stay up. This isn't going to be easy.

Either way, we'll find out soon enough whether we have enough quality to retain our Championship status.

Birmingham took the final relegation place with 50 points, plymouth survived on 51.

Important set of games coming up in Feb - 8 pts is a good call and We need to sort out this Goal Difference ...

I was thinking about what points total we need to be safe and it feels like 48 would probably do it.. that is 5 wins and 2 draws from 16 games

I think we need more - 50? There's no one cut adrift and some of the teams in the relegation zone are unexpected whilst teams like Oxford who I thought would be there are pretty safe.

21st and 22nd are about 2 points worse off than they were at the same stage last year. So I think 50 should see us safe, but we might get away with a point or two less.. but it will be nervy!