WINTER FORECAST - DISRUPTION TO OUR PROGRESS?

DECEMBER - CET 2.8C

There are indications of a very cold December with possible heavy snowfall events in central and northeast England, but also some snow from cold northwest flow patterns. We're predicting a rather low CET value of 2.8 C for December and some stretches of sub-freezing temperatures, most likely in the middle third of the month.
Moderate to heavy snowfalls are possible during this cold spell and most likely dates for these would be around the 6th and 13th (although 2-4 day periods of snowfall are likely). The southwest may escape this phase of the cold to some extent and see chilly rainfalls at least near sea level. With this early snow cover coming before the longest nights of the season, there is some chance of some notably cold overnight lows developing as high pressure swells up over northern central Europe in the days before the full moon on the 21st. An important storm event is likely to accompany this full moon, and it may produce another snowfall at least away from the south coast as the track of the event based on past analogues may be near to the Channel. The storm is likely to approach from WSW and is likely to slide under the block to the NE. If the trend happens to be milder than we're using as our base-line, this storm would bring mild, windy and rainy conditions but current indications for those conditions seem destined more for France and perhaps the coastal parts of Devon and Cornwall.
Following this storm system Christmas is likely to be dominated by HP and calm, cold and potentially freezing fog conditions may be prevalent.
Pressure is always higher to northern quadrant and the general flow remains North of E and W[Indeed the set uop projected by models currently is a very good indicator of pressure pattern]. Further snowy conditions are possible shortly afterwards say 28th (all these snowfall forecasts are based on energy level peaks which are expected to form a fairly regular 7-day pulse in mid-winter, evolving into a 3.5-day cycle by February as two separate chains of events with different timing separate out from each other). We should note also that the energy level peaks are very strong this winter, so that parts of Europe will be battered by very strong winds and heavy precipitation. In general, look for these events around the new and full moons for simplicity.

JANUARY CET 3.0C

During the first half of January this cold and wintry scenario is likely to continue through mid-month with further heavy snowfalls possible at times. There may also be some severe cold as Continental Arctic air is likely to be generally in control and calm periods between energy peaks could see very low temps over the snow fields. The January CET value may be sitting close to or below zero until milder air punches through later in the month. The block is likely to recede allowing a period of more zonal flow allowing milder air to flood through.
Once the block is broken down, it may flip over to near-record warmth for a few days around the January northern max and full moon period coming near the 17th to 20th. Here again, if our timing is off at all, that energy peak could produce another snowstorm, but our index values show a peak in temperatures at this time but of note from such a cold state the mildness may not be that stark. The period immediately before this milder turn could be somewhat similar to the snow to freezing rain to rain scenario of January 1982.


FEBRUARY - 2.0C
A second wave of arctic cold and blocking highs is considered quite likely for February, and the mild spell will probably fade out with some mixed precip storms as retrograde motion sees a Scandinavian high pressure reasserts itself which will link across to Greenland. As the month progresses HP retrogrades to Greenland and southern Scandinavia will be subject to troughing. We could foresee some very cold weather in February as a result of the renewed blocking as the strong initial easterly flow becomes a north and then NE'ly. We're speculating that a very low CET value could be observed in February, perhaps the lowest in recent years (we'll say 2.0 as a conservative estimate but would not be surprised by something quite lower) as to our east will be in the grips of a severe winter. We'll issue some more detailed predictions on snowfall dates in the second half of the winter if the pattern seems to be on course but a generally unstable airflow from over the North Sea is anticipated so periods of heavy snow likely.


March is likely to recover only slowly from this arctic trend and there may be more snow and frosts well into the month before a gradual recovery to more normal conditions.

We Def Need 4 New players and strong ones

we want heavy snow!!!!!

and once its down, stay thick for a few days-weeks america style

right then lads, go leave your car on, we clearly arent doing enough global warming

DECEMBER - CET 2.8C

There are indications of a very cold December with possible heavy snowfall events in central and northeast England, but also some snow from cold northwest flow patterns. We're predicting a rather low CET value of 2.8 C for December and some stretches of sub-freezing temperatures, most likely in the middle third of the month.
Moderate to heavy snowfalls are possible during this cold spell and most likely dates for these would be around the 6th and 13th (although 2-4 day periods of snowfall are likely). The southwest may escape this phase of the cold to some extent and see chilly rainfalls at least near sea level. With this early snow cover coming before the longest nights of the season, there is some chance of some notably cold overnight lows developing as high pressure swells up over northern central Europe in the days before the full moon on the 21st. An important storm event is likely to accompany this full moon, and it may produce another snowfall at least away from the south coast as the track of the event based on past analogues may be near to the Channel. The storm is likely to approach from WSW and is likely to slide under the block to the NE. If the trend happens to be milder than we're using as our base-line, this storm would bring mild, windy and rainy conditions but current indications for those conditions seem destined more for France and perhaps the coastal parts of Devon and Cornwall.
Following this storm system Christmas is likely to be dominated by HP and calm, cold and potentially freezing fog conditions may be prevalent.
Pressure is always higher to northern quadrant and the general flow remains North of E and W[Indeed the set uop projected by models currently is a very good indicator of pressure pattern]. Further snowy conditions are possible shortly afterwards say 28th (all these snowfall forecasts are based on energy level peaks which are expected to form a fairly regular 7-day pulse in mid-winter, evolving into a 3.5-day cycle by February as two separate chains of events with different timing separate out from each other). We should note also that the energy level peaks are very strong this winter, so that parts of Europe will be battered by very strong winds and heavy precipitation. In general, look for these events around the new and full moons for simplicity.

JANUARY CET 3.0C

During the first half of January this cold and wintry scenario is likely to continue through mid-month with further heavy snowfalls possible at times. There may also be some severe cold as Continental Arctic air is likely to be generally in control and calm periods between energy peaks could see very low temps over the snow fields. The January CET value may be sitting close to or below zero until milder air punches through later in the month. The block is likely to recede allowing a period of more zonal flow allowing milder air to flood through.
Once the block is broken down, it may flip over to near-record warmth for a few days around the January northern max and full moon period coming near the 17th to 20th. Here again, if our timing is off at all, that energy peak could produce another snowstorm, but our index values show a peak in temperatures at this time but of note from such a cold state the mildness may not be that stark. The period immediately before this milder turn could be somewhat similar to the snow to freezing rain to rain scenario of January 1982.


FEBRUARY - 2.0C
A second wave of arctic cold and blocking highs is considered quite likely for February, and the mild spell will probably fade out with some mixed precip storms as retrograde motion sees a Scandinavian high pressure reasserts itself which will link across to Greenland. As the month progresses HP retrogrades to Greenland and southern Scandinavia will be subject to troughing. We could foresee some very cold weather in February as a result of the renewed blocking as the strong initial easterly flow becomes a north and then NE'ly. We're speculating that a very low CET value could be observed in February, perhaps the lowest in recent years (we'll say 2.0 as a conservative estimate but would not be surprised by something quite lower) as to our east will be in the grips of a severe winter. We'll issue some more detailed predictions on snowfall dates in the second half of the winter if the pattern seems to be on course but a generally unstable airflow from over the North Sea is anticipated so periods of heavy snow likely.


March is likely to recover only slowly from this arctic trend and there may be more snow and frosts well into the month before a gradual recovery to more normal conditions.

Is this Old Moore's almanac or what?

Read the other day that they (weather boffins) think it will be like this for at least the next 5 years?!?!?!